Token Launches · resolved market
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb22e4178c4a0b8c89808c761f56a5eca954896b505dddb33ebcba231ba26ba5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $391,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $353,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked No | 7c | 29,010$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.51 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 9c | 20,716$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.76 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 3c | 16,986$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.73 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 2c | 14,376$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…3881backed No | 6c | 10,750$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…6bf8backed No | 11c | 10,499$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.65 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +10.5wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 10,158$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.23 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed No | 9c | 9,851$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.59 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +340.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…a996backed No | 14c | 7,531$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.81 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +119%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 6c | 6,645$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…2c09backed No | 5c | 6,194$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…969dbacked No | 8c | 5,929$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 5c | 5,500$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.12 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215e…658bbacked No | 8c | 5,224$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e5…25cbbacked No | 1c | 4,979$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…cf8cbacked No | 7c | 4,361$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 12c | 3,672$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.08 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfd…071ebacked No | 5c | 3,247$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…c7b1backed No | 5c | 3,086$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0f…3bfabacked No | 3c | 2,890$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 2,469$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…e71abacked No | 1c | 2,305$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…e9d0backed No | 1c | 2,222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed No | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…29e1backed No | 1c | 1,940$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0a…a693backed No | 14c | 1,832$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 1,801$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 4c | 1,800$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 1,729$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 4c | 1,717$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 15cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c09…d0a2backed No | 2c | 1,666$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 1,606$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed No | 5c | 1,511$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…8639backed No | 7c | 1,349$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0e…9b77backed No | 2c | 1,293$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…7912backed No | 4c | 1,199$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…c9f0backed No | 1c | 1,127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2170…dc18backed No | 5c | 1,038$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 2c | 999.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a1…5322backed No | 6c | 989.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked No | 3c | 980$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 969.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 2c | 865.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 5c | 857.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 2c | 800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…419cbacked No | 2c | 786.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…a8e3backed No | 5c | 726.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 656.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 643.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 33c | 600$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 9c | 584.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd4…1b34backed No | 8c | 567.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…81debacked No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2144…71f2backed No | 5c | 301.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 9c | 296.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…d0b4backed No | 7c | 288.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…72a9backed No | 6c | 242.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…5d0ebacked No | 5c | 205.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 7c | 191.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed No | 6c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…87e1backed No | 11c | 131.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 14c | 131$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…9dd6backed No | 11c | 130.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 12c | 128.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149d…24babacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.03?this page
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.04?Yes won
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?No won
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.06?No won
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.07?No won
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.08?No won
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.09?No won
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.10?No won
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.12?No won
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.14?No won
- Zama auction clearing price above $0.16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.