NBA · resolved market
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba075168e977e0ffc3f4f20b7db591d9733788fd57da5c3d58650a1980c67d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 15c | 1,674$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.95 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 19c | 1,494$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.45 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…e40ebacked Yes | 77c | 736.24$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 527.49$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 28c | 393.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 3c | 391.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 62c | 381.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 80c | 283.28$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 23c | 276.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 12c | 263.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 32c | 257.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…57acbacked No | 17c | 250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 248.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 34c | 208.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 17c | 199.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7c…42bfbacked No | 28c | 164.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 17c | 163$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 132.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…84c6backed No | 35c | 126.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 116$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc691…389cbacked No | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 18c | 114.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 58c | 113.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 34c | 104$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…9205backed No | 28c | 95.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…e08abacked No | 18c | 84.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…80e5backed No | 34c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa184…eaa4backed Yes | 65c | 76.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…ac2fbacked No | 41c | 73.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 36c | 67.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 66.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63db…762bbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed No | 38c | 49.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…b85abacked Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 26c | 41.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 29c | 39.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 33c | 34.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 64c | 27.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed No | 48c | 24.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 80c | 21.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?this page
- Will AJ Dybantsa be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Bennett Stirtz be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Darryn Peterson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Hannes Steinbach be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
- Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.