Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd077789968c16dba2aaf8e293b3198628751f3418919815046f77823d0cd15e2

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $95,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $84,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,536 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	3c	20,619$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.54	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde0a…f102backed Yes	3c	3,911$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.58	564	10.5%59 W · 505 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe2…5b75backed Yes	3c	3,030$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef25…4a1abacked Yes	3c	2,549$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.95	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+112.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefe9…7aaabacked Yes	3c	2,099$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.96	74	12.2%9 W · 65 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc32a…f7ebbacked Yes	3c	2,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	121	9.1%11 W · 110 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	5c	1,790$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.3	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes	3c	1,600$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbec0…9bddbacked Yes	2c	1,109$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	626	33.9%212 W · 414 L	-28.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes	3c	1,053$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	210	29%61 W · 149 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes	3c	967.74$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	103	5.8%6 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-66%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd26b…b09fbacked Yes	3c	926.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	357	14%50 W · 307 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2305…04f2backed Yes	3c	909.09$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5718…d232backed Yes	3c	896$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	160	13.8%22 W · 138 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc337…5984backed Yes	3c	787.88$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	196	18.4%36 W · 160 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d4…c45abacked Yes	3c	691.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	287	16.4%47 W · 240 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…10b4backed Yes	3c	689.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	724	24.7%179 W · 545 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	3c	680$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	145	8.3%12 W · 133 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b1…d4bdbacked Yes	2c	670$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b5f…7750backed Yes	3c	625$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	143	25.9%37 W · 106 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0763…6d79backed Yes	3c	606.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…0a99backed Yes	3c	606.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	300	11.3%34 W · 266 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a8…a003backed Yes	3c	601.25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	71	18.3%13 W · 58 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a21…e859backed Yes	3c	600$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	257	35%90 W · 167 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	3c	573$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca3…9914backed Yes	3c	550.72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes	3c	529$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	3c	505.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	427	10.3%44 W · 383 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c62…cd27backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35fb…4ce5backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	131	12.2%16 W · 115 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…1fbdbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-5.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-43%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Yes	3c	483.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	345	26.1%90 W · 255 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…8c4cbacked Yes	3c	324.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf29b…dd1abacked Yes	3c	312.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay?this page
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay?Yes won
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay?No won
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Paraguay?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event