TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,145

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82c8…a5dbbacked Yes20c29,988$5,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,997.6922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes15c10,564$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.9174644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes19c8,653$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.031,01233.2%336 W · 676 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…13cdbacked No80c8,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6001392.3%12 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick74cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yes11c7,988$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.85240%0 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes20c7,301$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.9319239.1%75 W · 117 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed No80c6,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2003971.8%28 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed Yes19c5,847$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.999141.8%38 W · 53 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Yes14c3,998$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.712339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes18c2,669$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.4246651.9%242 W · 224 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes13c2,517$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7461143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ce…2edfbacked Yes16c2,421$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.441540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No80c2,222$1,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.426444.7%118 W · 146 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd43…cd41backed No80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002875%21 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes18c1,673$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.1119735.5%70 W · 127 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f45…180bbacked Yes13c1,592$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.985226.9%14 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15565.4%3 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+150.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No80c1,400$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28055751.5%287 W · 270 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Yes16c1,358$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.436432.8%21 W · 43 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa560…f42ebacked Yes16c1,306$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.91520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Yes12c1,140$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.85928.8%17 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes9c1,101$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5125225%63 W · 189 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Yes14c1,016$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.189534.7%33 W · 62 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No79c802.22$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.141,22049.8%607 W · 613 L+4.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes19c700.98$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1954340.5%220 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes19c653.93$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3638233.2%127 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed Yes16c593.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Yes16c593.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.962231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+46.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb8…902abacked Yes18c534.75$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.085139.2%20 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x141a…95a9backed Yes19c499.94$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Yes20c476$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.219235.9%69 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0410…b274backed Yes20c476$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed Yes20c476$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Yes17c390.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.082015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfa…d143backed Yes18c380.32$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.492433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6451…025fbacked Yes13c364.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.396230.6%19 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc617…25e8backed Yes16c352.52$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.41050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Yes20c341.77$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.351428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes17c335.36$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.01714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-78%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Yes8c330.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4535428.5%101 W · 253 L-20.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9539…e9bbbacked Yes15c316.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.453040%12 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes9c315.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.362642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea46…5d46backed Yes20c309.4$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe8b…517cbacked Yes9c304.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.424920.4%10 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked No80c299.99$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.514654.8%80 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Yes19c289$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.914245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+35.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes20c285.6$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.123043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e7…1c56backed Yes17c279.47$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac7e…4768backed Yes16c261.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.78922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc594…7738backed Yes21c258.56$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.32425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9958…a088backed Yes19c250.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-74.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2c…71a9backed Yes19c250.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes20c238$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.66235.5%22 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcad4…242cbacked Yes20c238$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.650%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b57…84ebbacked Yes16c237.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.986432.8%21 W · 43 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab7c…746dbacked Yes10c236.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes17c234.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9114949%73 W · 76 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ff…38c2backed Yes10c228.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.892941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+27.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes10c227.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.718748.1%90 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Yes13c223.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.752030%6 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x70e9…836abacked Yes11c213$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.713633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked Yes9c210.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.912825%7 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes9c204.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.973432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes19c203.45$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0511527%31 W · 84 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a14…700dbacked Yes10c189.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes19c146.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7972142.7%308 W · 413 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf692…dd55backed Yes13c145.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.964531.1%14 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes20c142.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5610233.3%34 W · 68 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ff…35ccbacked Yes20c142.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.423847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9269…5eb8backed Yes21c136.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.583630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Yes14c130.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.285334%18 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c9…6410backed Yes15c126.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa936…3b90backed Yes19c123$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3710554.3%57 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf7…f9b6backed Yes20c119$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Yes16c118.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.992646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c41…1268backed Yes16c118.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb15…5fefbacked Yes13c117.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.226053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Yes21c113.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.825856.9%33 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15db…1da8backed Yes17c111.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192060%12 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b54…2f95backed Yes12c106.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.341625%4 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe867…0905backed Yes13c102.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.276543.1%28 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…d6f3backed Yes13c100.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-46.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x62ff…6b66backed Yes19c100.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.037525.3%19 W · 56 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc112…d1efbacked Yes19c100.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.036339.7%25 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015738.9%61 W · 96 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041850.7%212 W · 206 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910838.9%42 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes21c99.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9645224.8%112 W · 340 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf11a…d3e3backed No80c98.8$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.762347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb58…4acebacked Yes20c95.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0414045%63 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Yes20c95.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0411636.2%42 W · 74 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x295d…5dc8backed Yes20c95.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.042733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e43…a94abacked Yes20c95.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6912…c24ebacked Yes20c95.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-59.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf24f…15b2backed Yes20c95.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.049936.4%36 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes17c95.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0559645.5%271 W · 325 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No80c94.02$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.818453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…5c82backed Yes21c90.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0516946.2%78 W · 91 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5e…885cbacked Yes21c90.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0560%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81c6…1110backed Yes21c90.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.052347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.