TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, Dplus KIA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$404,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$469,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 329 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x14ac…cb21backed Dplus KIA45c36,583$16,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,569.2125446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Gen.G76c26,784$20,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,542.3439770.3%279 W · 118 L+30.9wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Gen.G73c19,293$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,292.8259558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2219…a5e9backed Dplus KIA2c17,000$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.891921.1%4 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick9cpaid+277.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Dplus KIA30c12,790$3,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,837.631,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Dplus KIA34c11,723$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.8266437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Gen.G58c11,684$6,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,954.031,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Gen.G41c11,490$4,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,767.4325244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Dplus KIA17c11,074$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.7125038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Gen.G52c10,274$5,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,946.851,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Gen.G66c9,267$6,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,138.9448157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Dplus KIA23c7,400$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.951,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Dplus KIA25c6,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50016034.4%55 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Dplus KIA25c5,940$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.697427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Dplus KIA12c5,300$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6541,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Dplus KIA20c5,221$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.321,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Dplus KIA26c5,108$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.4825547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Gen.G67c4,956$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.538056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Gen.G70c4,490$3,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.826453.1%34 W · 30 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9f…7d7fbacked Dplus KIA28c4,000$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1359535.8%34 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedf9…5b10backed Dplus KIA38c3,934$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.116238.7%24 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Gen.G77c3,750$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.525751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Gen.G77c3,546$2,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.2826645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Dplus KIA30c3,530$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.778336.1%30 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Dplus KIA31c3,502$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.261,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Gen.G66c3,435$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.928361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Dplus KIA22c3,051$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.1223439.7%93 W · 141 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Gen.G59c2,950$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.9952650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Dplus KIA25c2,912$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72814835.1%52 W · 96 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Dplus KIA60c2,792$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.082,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Dplus KIA34c2,631$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90036943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Dplus KIA26c2,600$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6741,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Dplus KIA33c2,578$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.851,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Dplus KIA30c2,560$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76823020%46 W · 184 L-17.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed Gen.G77c2,500$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58540651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Gen.G67c2,297$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.313355.6%74 W · 59 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcff4…3609backed Dplus KIA31c2,270$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.71827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed Gen.G73c2,232$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.6467276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe70d…dd35backed Gen.G75c2,201$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.212661.1%77 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Gen.G74c2,180$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.720035%70 W · 130 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38ac…f9b7backed Gen.G71c2,091$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.033847.4%18 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Dplus KIA7c2,053$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.26297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Dplus KIA24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x741e…9014backed Dplus KIA11c1,770$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.158121%17 W · 64 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9e…b39dbacked Gen.G64c1,749$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cd…3499backed Gen.G75c1,699$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.875450%27 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cea…2d58backed Gen.G75c1,580$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39516354%88 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Dplus KIA24c1,500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36542924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Gen.G78c1,482$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.091,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Gen.G79c1,408$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.761,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed Dplus KIA43c1,398$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.18560%51 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed Dplus KIA36c1,391$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8416040%64 W · 96 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Dplus KIA10c1,316$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.721,44413.2%191 W · 1,253 L-110.0wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8804…a3a7backed Gen.G69c1,276$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.4915450%77 W · 77 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed Dplus KIA31c1,268$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.759741.2%40 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Dplus KIA25c1,250$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.595951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7ad…4c93backed Gen.G72c1,217$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.572958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad6…a93cbacked Gen.G63c1,150$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.246640.9%27 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x959f…9e2fbacked Gen.G76c1,123$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.1710352.4%54 W · 49 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-21.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Gen.G76c1,115$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.9370162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Dplus KIA32c1,069$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.0876953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbecd…7fd6backed Dplus KIA75c1,034$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.69454.3%51 W · 43 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Dplus KIA28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28075738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Dplus KIA4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked Dplus KIA25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502010%2 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Dplus KIA25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25029940.1%120 W · 179 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed Gen.G69c1,000$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31528350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Dplus KIA26c999.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Gen.G76c999.99$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Dplus KIA33c993.15$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.641,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Gen.G73c984.77$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.891,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Gen.G76c864.04$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.3796057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Dplus KIA23c863.76$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1514757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gen.G66c863.15$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.381,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Dplus KIA31c859.25$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.672,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Gen.G74c849.57$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.897052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Gen.G74c820$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.22,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Gen.G70c800$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a11…6961backed Dplus KIA23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf459…7a53backed Dplus KIA27c798.19$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.5121655.1%119 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Dplus KIA24c750$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18046033.9%156 W · 304 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Dplus KIA24c703.15$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7921735%76 W · 141 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Dplus KIA22c701.09$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.371,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0267…dc5abacked Gen.G24c700$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5321258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.29per pick30cpaid+110.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Dplus KIA73c695.49$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50848353.4%258 W · 225 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa50b…74b2backed Gen.G72c694.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4410443.3%45 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Dplus KIA30c683.52$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.4649549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Dplus KIA10c663.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.053745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x709d…0a62backed Gen.G76c661.79$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.7926052.7%137 W · 123 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd690…93a6backed Gen.G60c650$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26010160.4%61 W · 40 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Gen.G78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0319244.3%85 W · 107 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Gen.G63c639.19$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.531661.7%195 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a0…d7a5backed Gen.G60c633.59$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.139252.2%48 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf0…9d88backed Gen.G78c616.81$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Gen.G76c600$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Dplus KIA24c600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe214…e516backed Gen.G69c599.99$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1862100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+222.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed Gen.G63c597.84$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.8415166.2%100 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Dplus KIA42c595.24$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509962.6%62 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaba4…42abbacked Dplus KIA42c588.94$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2465851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.