Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5594e51f273efb8045b8809945f5de95e5b23aa55402e69ab4ccc55707ab843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 35c | 4,477$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.54 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 42c | 789.62$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.02 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 695.89$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 49c | 613.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.61 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 48c | 600$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 42c | 557.35$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 510.93$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 477.18$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 476.29$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 470.5$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.5 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 450.29$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 445.99$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed No | 57c | 387.48$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.82 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 379.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 48c | 354.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.43 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 342.2$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 51c | 294.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 47c | 252.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 244.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 232.57$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 231.02$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 48c | 229.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 217.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 172.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 159.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 153.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 152.36$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 152$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 145.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 145.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 137$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 134.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 8c | 134$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked No | 45c | 133.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 132.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a6…f21fbacked Yes | 48c | 129.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 127.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 12c | 121.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 31c | 119.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 119.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 48c | 115$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462f…fb33backed Yes | 48c | 114.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1586…cd6cbacked No | 14c | 108.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 11c | 100.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 67c | 98.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 58c | 95.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 90.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 78.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 71.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 69.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 38c | 64.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 59.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 57.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 48c | 55.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 55.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 52c | 47.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 56c | 46.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 49c | 46.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 63c | 45.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 33c | 41.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 39c | 40.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 54c | 40.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 38.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 54c | 37.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.