TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,981 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes35c4,477$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,898.5431043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes42c789.62$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.0256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes75c695.89$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.046,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes49c613.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.6116134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes48c600$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31128441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes42c557.35$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.752737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No45c510.93$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.834,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No59c477.18$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.414,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No59c476.29$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.784,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes47c470.5$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c450.29$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.925,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c445.99$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.325,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7529…9d10backed No57c387.48$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.822236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes34c379.67$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.285,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes48c354.67$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.4314646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c342.2$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.164,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18663255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No5c299.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d35…3d76backed No51c294.76$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b6…0400backed Yes47c252.48$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.633641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes28c244.64$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.288,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No52c232.57$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.822,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c231.02$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes48c229.35$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3510244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes46c217.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.446240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c178$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.926219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c172.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c159.91$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c153.07$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.742,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No80c152.36$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.891,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c152$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.014,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No75c145.69$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.291,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c145.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.939,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No64c137$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.541,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c134.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.54,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No8c134$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe61b…b4adbacked No45c133.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.61833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No59c132.79$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77a6…f21fbacked Yes48c129.85$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.524100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+135.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes27c127.84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.322,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c125$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.33,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf685…5ec9backed No12c121.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.752572%18 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes31c119.89$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.191,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No52c119.28$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.612,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes48c115$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.82,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x462f…fb33backed Yes48c114.83$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c110$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1586…cd6cbacked No14c108.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed No11c100.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5820341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.513351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No67c98.08$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No58c95.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes33c90.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7125747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes41c79.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No55c78.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.451,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c71.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.649,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes43c69.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No76c68$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6854853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No38c64.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2865353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes27c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No76c59.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4755954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8211334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No42c57.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.261,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes48c55.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.821,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No53c55.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7252758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3626256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3185049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1844646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46e…11f4backed Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.993953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No52c47.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5157948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes56c46.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4313838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No49c46.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2393837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No63c45.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7127248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes50c43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No61c42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6258358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes33c41.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed Yes39c40.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.778737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec4…cb91backed No54c40.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.87170.4%50 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.644366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9775…b70dbacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306248.4%30 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.215950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes49c38.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.412,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No54c37.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8314161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes28c36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.922,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.