Fifa International · resolved market
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6397d0ce8313babeb29918e9f5def2eb05117f8751e78911f322add4cf5ffa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fc3…b676backed Over | 50c | 15,925$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b8…c368backed Over | 45c | 6,362$2,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846.76 | 177 | 33.9%60 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 379 | 59.1%224 W · 155 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.99 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 52c | 3,721$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.32 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…a357backed Under | 52c | 3,155$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.37 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Under | 52c | 1,922$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.61 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…a84abacked Over | 48c | 1,628$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 56c | 1,377$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.63 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 1,000$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.16 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb11…7901backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 53c | 959.89$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.15 | 617 | 50.6%312 W · 305 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked Under | 55c | 646.79$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.06 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…3797backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…abf6backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Over | 44c | 265.26$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 256.59$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 51c | 245$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 243.34$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…ed31backed Over | 48c | 218$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a0…6702backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 260 | 42.3%110 W · 150 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…9a9fbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…415abacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 287 | 47%135 W · 152 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 559 | 42.4%237 W · 322 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 259 | 48.6%126 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…384fbacked Under | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 34.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…b30abacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 52c | 29.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 660 | 56.8%375 W · 285 L | +34.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 52c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e6…8431backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Cornersthis page
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 5.5 CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 3.5 CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 5.5 CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 10.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 11.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 12.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Team to Take First CornerEcuador won
- Ecuador vs. Germany: Total Corners Odd or Even?Odd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.