UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe6f0c5405bcae89f3f62867a048eb9fc8e4fbe45ed11a67f6def610c6b2620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Francis Marshallof Lucas Brennan, Francis Marshall
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e2f…aaf8backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 32,301$6,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,460.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Francis Marshall | 80c | 25,081$20,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,075.95 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 24,848$5,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,029.24 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Francis Marshall | 80c | 18,527$14,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,752.91 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Lucas Brennan | 15c | 9,776$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.1 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Francis Marshall | 80c | 9,057$7,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.47 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…ca79backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 7,511$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Lucas Brennan | 18c | 4,010$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.83 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Lucas Brennan | 25c | 3,305$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.52 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed Lucas Brennan | 18c | 2,339$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lucas Brennan | 7c | 1,721$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Francis Marshall | 75c | 1,705$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.99 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…b642backed Lucas Brennan | 1c | 1,563$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed Lucas Brennan | 16c | 1,503$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Lucas Brennan | 9c | 1,247$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 1,123$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Lucas Brennan | 16c | 1,071$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lucas Brennan | 18c | 1,061$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Francis Marshall | 80c | 1,029$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.7 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Francis Marshall | 80c | 988$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…5c4dbacked Lucas Brennan | 21c | 907.24$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.52 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Francis Marshall | 78c | 896.96$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.33 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Lucas Brennan | 22c | 866.55$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.64 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Francis Marshall | 79c | 798.84$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3081…d24abacked Lucas Brennan | 6c | 786.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 777.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Lucas Brennan | 19c | 751.11$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Lucas Brennan | 21c | 739.4$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…d2f5backed Lucas Brennan | 5c | 648.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…884ebacked Lucas Brennan | 22c | 565.52$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 500.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Lucas Brennan | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 495.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 476$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Lucas Brennan | 22c | 433.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Lucas Brennan | 17c | 411.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…dcb7backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 389.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Francis Marshall | 79c | 374.96$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…6bf7backed Lucas Brennan | 12c | 346.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Lucas Brennan | 17c | 334.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Lucas Brennan | 20c | 323.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Francis Marshall | 78c | 317.9$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Lucas Brennan | 13c | 299.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Lucas Brennan | 22c | 255.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Francis Marshall | 80c | 230.95$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…76e0backed Lucas Brennan | 7c | 202.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 24cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 196.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 195.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed Francis Marshall | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Lucas Brennan | 16c | 177.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc86…8f01backed Lucas Brennan | 9c | 163.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…f992backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 150.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…5da8backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 146.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…b8f3backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 142.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Lucas Brennan | 18c | 132.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 122.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…4f14backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 120.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Lucas Brennan | 17c | 118.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Lucas Brennan | 16c | 116.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Lucas Brennan | 18c | 116.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Lucas Brennan | 17c | 114.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9096…17dcbacked Lucas Brennan | 22c | 107.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Lucas Brennan | 18c | 102.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Francis Marshall | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Francis Marshall | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Lucas Brennan | 22c | 95.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…86fdbacked Lucas Brennan | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 251 | 60.2%151 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked Francis Marshall | 77c | 88.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e6…64dabacked Lucas Brennan | 22c | 87.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…9e2fbacked Lucas Brennan | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Lucas Brennan | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6b69backed Lucas Brennan | 22c | 84.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Lucas Brennan | 22c | 84.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 73.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…1535backed Francis Marshall | 80c | 68.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…243fbacked Lucas Brennan | 21c | 68.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Lucas Brennan | 16c | 65.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Lucas Brennan | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 57.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Francis Marshall | 80c | 55.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Lucas Brennan | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Francis Marshall | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c05…2918backed Francis Marshall | 79c | 48.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d59…2b49backed Francis Marshall | 80c | 45.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Francis Marshall | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Francis Marshall | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Francis Marshall | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Francis Marshall | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked Francis Marshall | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Francis Marshall | 70c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…8c4abacked Francis Marshall | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…476ebacked Francis Marshall | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.