TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Mexico (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mexicoof Mexico, Czechia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,108,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,122,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,108,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 457 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c3a…020bbacked Mexico30c300,000$90,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209,299.7121343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Czechia66c295,018$193,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193,299.64,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Czechia70c111,111$77,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,777.6942345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Czechia70c107,163$74,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,929.0928162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Mexico37c90,299$33,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,945.282,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Mexico30c87,866$26,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,112.122,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Mexico30c74,623$22,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,035.3623942.3%101 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Mexico29c65,400$18,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,658.392,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Mexico30c55,000$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,499.9917949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20b9…4affbacked Mexico30c47,698$14,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,465.614040%16 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Czechia70c40,488$28,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,331.894161%25 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Czechia73c28,939$21,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,214.5615950.3%80 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Czechia69c21,491$14,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,825.3877152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Czechia69c18,460$12,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,699.843,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Mexico30c16,401$4,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,480.8574752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Czechia46c12,299$5,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,683.981,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b9…3ab4backed Czechia68c12,000$8,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,159.999645.8%44 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Czechia70c11,676$8,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,210.133,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Czechia70c10,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0006842.6%29 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a2…353abacked Mexico29c10,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,1004841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Mexico26c10,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,399.9911443%49 W · 65 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Mexico44c9,136$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,135.84443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Czechia69c8,516$5,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,876.0470244.6%313 W · 389 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Czechia69c8,500$5,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8701,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Czechia71c8,005$5,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,723.491,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Czechia72c8,000$5,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,756.391,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Czechia71c7,858$5,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,571.262,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Mexico27c7,517$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,488.484355.8%24 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Czechia70c7,500$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.9913259.1%78 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Czechia71c7,436$5,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.041,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Czechia69c7,246$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010059%59 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Czechia11c6,010$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.214132.6%46 W · 95 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Czechia67c5,850$3,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,910.521,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725b…8016backed Czechia68c5,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4003345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Czechia71c5,000$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,57048441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4582…619ebacked Czechia68c5,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.988735.6%31 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Czechia71c5,000$3,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,569.9747643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Czechia70c4,800$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.241,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Czechia69c4,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.9929250.7%148 W · 144 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Czechia73c3,932$2,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,851.661,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfde…3f9cbacked Mexico26c3,846$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.151822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60f6…a196backed Czechia7c3,740$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.8946012.4%57 W · 403 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Czechia72c3,500$2,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,53547144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d06…f79dbacked Mexico32c3,125$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12512536.8%46 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9278…9a1bbacked Czechia72c3,121$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25015453.9%83 W · 71 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Czechia73c3,000$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19050243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Mexico15c2,958$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,514.1328025%70 W · 210 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Czechia70c2,948$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.51,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Czechia75c2,667$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011254.5%61 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Czechia73c2,622$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.2451032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Czechia73c2,442$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.5811952.9%63 W · 56 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Czechia73c2,400$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75244144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Czechia27c2,347$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.122,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e24…3474backed Czechia73c2,275$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65014444.4%64 W · 80 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Mexico50c2,015$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.8541968.3%286 W · 133 L+65.4wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Czechia70c1,828$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.684751%432 W · 415 L+10.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Czechia70c1,828$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.625848.4%125 W · 133 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25b9…a250backed Czechia72c1,639$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1856450%32 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62e0…32dfbacked Mexico31c1,613$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.917345.1%78 W · 95 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7aec…2b9ebacked Mexico31c1,613$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.96532.3%21 W · 44 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Czechia73c1,600$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16847442.8%203 W · 271 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Mexico29c1,578$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.5952744.4%234 W · 293 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Czechia69c1,546$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.9574447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd252…775bbacked Mexico32c1,524$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.556139.3%24 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Czechia68c1,500$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02035424%85 W · 269 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Czechia68c1,471$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9867447.6%321 W · 353 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Czechia68c1,459$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.3671638.4%275 W · 441 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a4…3d29backed Czechia70c1,429$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007545.3%34 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Czechia71c1,246$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.154,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Czechia70c1,203$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.5968141.1%280 W · 401 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Czechia74c1,200$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.9913952.5%73 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Czechia19c1,174$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1453629.9%160 W · 376 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Czechia30c1,122$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.784,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Mexico44c1,076$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.1821143.1%91 W · 120 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Czechia69c1,061$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.248,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Czechia74c1,045$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.971,70236.7%625 W · 1,077 L-31.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce72…cbefbacked Czechia74c1,008$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.929052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Czechia71c1,000$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.0264443.3%279 W · 365 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed Czechia74c1,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74033548.4%162 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Czechia69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69015150.3%76 W · 75 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Czechia70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70018465.8%121 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24b6…e069backed Mexico26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7403633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7544…b575backed Czechia74c1,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74022047.7%105 W · 115 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed Czechia74c1,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74032647.9%156 W · 170 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Czechia68c999.99$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.9932642.9%140 W · 186 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Mexico25c999.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.9955044.7%246 W · 304 L-27.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2463…e21bbacked Mexico26c999.78$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.8426836.9%99 W · 169 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Czechia5c987.77$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.342,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe991…48b1backed Mexico31c967.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.7433641.7%140 W · 196 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Czechia74c908$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.9213550.4%68 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f3…ec52backed Mexico22c880.95$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.957644.7%34 W · 42 L+8.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+38.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed Czechia7c857.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6042126.4%111 W · 310 L+1.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Czechia74c850.33$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.961,94542.7%831 W · 1,114 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Czechia70c817.11$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.982,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Mexico31c806.45$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.4522846.1%105 W · 123 L-0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe766…7843backed Czechia35c781.57$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9923645.3%107 W · 129 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Mexico26c769.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.2314528.3%41 W · 104 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c3…ac23backed Czechia69c749.97$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9895739.5%378 W · 579 L-18.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Czechia69c735$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.042,38053.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L+76.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Czechia71c735$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.73,73151.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L+55.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.