TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Cricket · resolved market

The Hundred: Southern Brave vs Birmingham Phoenix

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Southern Braveof Southern Brave, Birmingham Phoenix
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$190,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x198f…c419backed Southern Brave58c25,488$14,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,633.1916546.1%76 W · 89 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x519b…624ebacked Southern Brave78c17,314$13,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,886.055844.8%26 W · 32 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b7…6008backed Birmingham Phoenix43c12,417$5,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,331.2533340.2%134 W · 199 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ad…31e6backed Southern Brave58c8,665$4,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,669.9712158.7%71 W · 50 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc293…fac3backed Southern Brave58c6,043$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,543.31681.3%13 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick58cpaid+39.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c7e…f896backed Birmingham Phoenix8c6,027$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.271838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0389…847bbacked Southern Brave50c5,055$2,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,542.9715558.1%90 W · 65 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0ee…1686backed Birmingham Phoenix7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35018923.8%45 W · 144 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…d3b2backed Birmingham Phoenix49c4,524$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.817535.4%62 W · 113 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Birmingham Phoenix34c3,795$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.515966%105 W · 54 L+16.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Birmingham Phoenix67c3,104$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.5510863.9%69 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e02…d70abacked Birmingham Phoenix18c2,886$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.3136445.6%166 W · 198 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9104…c269backed Birmingham Phoenix48c2,219$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.6514070.7%99 W · 41 L+21.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+33.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xfd9d…3aaabacked Birmingham Phoenix44c2,156$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11de…bb27backed Birmingham Phoenix52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+40.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x037a…1202backed Southern Brave65c1,542$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.117146.5%33 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Birmingham Phoenix34c1,542$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.85046%23 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079a…d3dfbacked Southern Brave49c1,349$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.4410763.6%68 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Birmingham Phoenix41c1,166$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.2314543.4%63 W · 82 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ebc…6bfdbacked Southern Brave78c1,031$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Birmingham Phoenix39c968.75$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.0323033.9%78 W · 152 L-18.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Birmingham Phoenix43c948$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.0813647.8%65 W · 71 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Birmingham Phoenix36c891.76$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.031968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9065…3275backed Southern Brave64c863.67$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.8312759.1%75 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Birmingham Phoenix45c755.65$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3249247.2%232 W · 260 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f7…365fbacked Birmingham Phoenix64c709.98$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.482045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Birmingham Phoenix44c664.93$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.597548%36 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Southern Brave55c633.23$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.6264143.1%276 W · 365 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Southern Brave55c629$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.611143.2%48 W · 63 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Birmingham Phoenix48c599.98$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Birmingham Phoenix65c596.42$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.25549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Southern Brave57c525.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.836962.3%43 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0646…ad17backed Birmingham Phoenix4c499.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1932415.7%51 W · 273 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+75.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Southern Brave54c495.37$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.371233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-42.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Birmingham Phoenix70c428.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011659.5%69 W · 47 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Southern Brave69c384.28$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4131940.1%128 W · 191 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a99…40d8backed Birmingham Phoenix47c375.35$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1911054.5%60 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Birmingham Phoenix56c346.91$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2219862.6%124 W · 74 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Southern Brave78c322.58$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9712100%12 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5817…987dbacked Birmingham Phoenix44c302.57$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1317943.6%78 W · 101 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fab…3c98backed Southern Brave52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1447248.6%35 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Birmingham Phoenix43c299.89$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9512343.9%54 W · 69 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Southern Brave57c289$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.274463.6%28 W · 16 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2365…9da2backed Birmingham Phoenix17c285.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.511216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9220…c73fbacked Southern Brave53c283.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.023458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1f5…7a96backed Birmingham Phoenix70c272.81$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Southern Brave49c259.86$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6438844.6%173 W · 215 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Birmingham Phoenix39c245.12$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9450547.5%240 W · 265 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Southern Brave58c237.87$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.111566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4d…066dbacked Southern Brave42c236.43$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.4322647.3%107 W · 119 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Birmingham Phoenix51c235.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208925.8%23 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe99b…d599backed Birmingham Phoenix48c229.96$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7820251.5%104 W · 98 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8071…b139backed Birmingham Phoenix44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003333.3%11 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Southern Brave38c213$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1339852%51 W · 47 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d22…b754backed Southern Brave35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1304736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0592…49aabacked Southern Brave25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1506116.4%10 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Birmingham Phoenix45c194.98$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0918757.8%108 W · 79 L+18.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Birmingham Phoenix42c186.23$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.389933.3%33 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f2b…ccedbacked Birmingham Phoenix14c184$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610028%28 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabc7…37bdbacked Birmingham Phoenix54c181.83$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.191747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5c…c372backed Southern Brave50c181.44$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Birmingham Phoenix46c180$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.161844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Birmingham Phoenix24c170.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1827029.6%80 W · 190 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Southern Brave72c159.39$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1541947.5%199 W · 220 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7090…a5ffbacked Southern Brave42c152.97$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5521439.7%85 W · 129 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Birmingham Phoenix44c150.76$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.845647.6%217 W · 239 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Birmingham Phoenix60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909252.2%48 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked Southern Brave52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4588…1099backed Birmingham Phoenix67c149.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Southern Brave57c144.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.142759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Southern Brave57c144.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.142665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7201…00a4backed Birmingham Phoenix69c140$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Southern Brave30c139.97$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.236627.3%18 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6c7…b914backed Southern Brave45c136.36$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757356.2%41 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ede…ab03backed Birmingham Phoenix59c132.61$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.45650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e6…5e18backed Southern Brave21c128.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdace…f42bbacked Birmingham Phoenix11c128$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.48137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…0bd6backed Southern Brave58c124$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Birmingham Phoenix17c123$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.913040%12 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Birmingham Phoenix36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019654.1%106 W · 90 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb0b…e2a3backed Birmingham Phoenix66c107.65$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7113921.6%30 W · 109 L-14.6wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-41%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfff3…6486backed Birmingham Phoenix58c104.89$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Southern Brave32c103.28$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1367931.4%213 W · 466 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba94…c78bbacked Birmingham Phoenix70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.436564.6%42 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25a4…69f6backed Southern Brave57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Southern Brave76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf7…ad81backed Birmingham Phoenix80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0be…8d08backed Birmingham Phoenix63c99.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7519958.8%117 W · 82 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5db…23e0backed Southern Brave33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.995529.1%16 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Southern Brave53c98.36$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.584242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc47e…3c2dbacked Birmingham Phoenix44c97.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.031225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-46.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e80…c709backed Southern Brave52c96.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.415544.5%69 W · 86 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Southern Brave68c95.54$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.243745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8087…a213backed Birmingham Phoenix37c95.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.343473.5%25 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb26f…3487backed Southern Brave53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.345660.7%34 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e69…755bbacked Birmingham Phoenix52c92.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.662128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Southern Brave40c85.11$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0931543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d6f…d20fbacked Birmingham Phoenix68c81.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.152927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e7a…f252backed Southern Brave57c78.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.953844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb009…1604backed Southern Brave53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-53.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.