TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Czechia (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South Africaof Czechia, South Africa
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,494,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,459,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,494,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 766 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed South Africa71c344,228$244,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,579.677152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed South Africa66c207,926$137,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,735.474,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f65…2036backed Czechia27c183,761$48,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,859.2314248.6%69 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Czechia33c145,307$47,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,428.552,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Czechia28c103,654$28,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,75019644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3496…8fc4backed South Africa65c99,438$64,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,897.6717034.7%59 W · 111 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Czechia35c37,786$13,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,224.9374752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Czechia28c35,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,799.9921029%61 W · 149 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9340…ae1dbacked Czechia37c31,384$11,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,615.537416.2%12 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…3ff6backed Czechia27c31,213$8,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,427.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Czechia30c27,325$8,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,244.241,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Czechia31c26,636$8,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,288.768135.8%29 W · 52 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed South Africa74c22,595$16,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,889.9328162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Czechia28c22,177$6,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,104.79850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Czechia28c18,688$5,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,232.720844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Czechia27c12,052$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,27036247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Czechia27c12,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,24029646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed South Africa73c12,000$8,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,24036250.8%184 W · 178 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed South Africa73c11,141$8,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.253,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ff…32ebbacked South Africa77c10,610$8,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.4610550.5%53 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed South Africa73c10,568$7,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,853.258047.5%38 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked South Africa72c10,392$7,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,960.161,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked South Africa56c10,185$5,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,480.312,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Czechia35c10,149$3,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.1621343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Czechia27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70020044.5%89 W · 111 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Czechia26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60012536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe214…c5cebacked Czechia37c9,899$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,639.9422437.1%83 W · 141 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed South Africa65c9,209$5,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,223.2620955.5%116 W · 93 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Czechia29c8,887$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.6632029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x839e…0d3cbacked Czechia34c8,772$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00013639%53 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed South Africa71c8,553$6,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,509.411,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Czechia27c8,237$2,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.982,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc18e…38afbacked Czechia45c7,945$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,575.261258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked South Africa72c7,702$5,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.841,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Czechia30c7,248$2,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,180.888,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked Czechia26c7,000$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb0…34ecbacked Czechia27c6,556$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7703658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Czechia27c6,296$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.351,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed South Africa73c6,000$4,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62016258.6%95 W · 67 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf285…ab24backed South Africa72c6,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.969253.3%49 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed South Africa72c5,683$4,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.2418850%94 W · 94 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13d0…593dbacked Czechia27c5,556$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012329.3%36 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Czechia26c5,555$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.289126.4%24 W · 67 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Czechia34c5,540$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.5658049.1%285 W · 295 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6320…7e94backed Czechia26c5,009$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.3338817.5%68 W · 320 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked South Africa72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40070648.2%340 W · 366 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Czechia44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9922229.7%66 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed South Africa73c4,800$3,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29637850.5%191 W · 187 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed South Africa66c4,451$2,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.0426459.5%157 W · 107 L+18.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed South Africa72c4,416$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.4826454.5%144 W · 120 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed South Africa73c4,200$3,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,13438351.4%197 W · 186 L-1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Czechia27c4,083$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.411,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Czechia27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08029250.7%148 W · 144 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cf…1d5abacked Czechia25c3,976$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9946643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37f4…49afbacked South Africa64c3,888$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.1219037.4%71 W · 119 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked South Africa71c3,750$2,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.633,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Czechia27c3,704$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005127.5%14 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed South Africa73c3,600$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97235251.7%182 W · 170 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf536…1579backed Czechia29c3,544$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02315440.3%62 W · 92 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Czechia27c3,521$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.577153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6495…0181backed South Africa65c3,432$2,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.9211855.9%66 W · 52 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Czechia27c3,360$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.082,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Czechia40c3,350$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.9910146.5%47 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked South Africa59c3,324$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.387865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Czechia37c3,273$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21113843.5%60 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Czechia41c3,020$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25020633%68 W · 138 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Czechia27c3,006$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.551,06749.1%524 W · 543 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a2…353abacked Czechia28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8404841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Czechia25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75086452.7%455 W · 409 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23b0…13a3backed Czechia28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.9915128.5%43 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Czechia26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9735424%85 W · 269 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2613…12bdbacked Czechia28c2,857$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80014035.7%50 W · 90 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Czechia35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9967447.6%321 W · 353 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked South Africa64c2,701$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.6151032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed Czechia31c2,567$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80026644%117 W · 149 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed South Africa72c2,500$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70048441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Czechia41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.9826447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba1d…d326backed Czechia44c2,449$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.121946.1%101 W · 118 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed South Africa64c2,435$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.5937959.1%224 W · 155 L+20.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed South Africa74c2,400$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6368247.6%39 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed South Africa73c2,400$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64839050.8%198 W · 192 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed South Africa73c2,400$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64838451.6%198 W · 186 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d06…f79dbacked Czechia42c2,340$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.912536.8%46 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed South Africa73c2,296$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.9533548.4%162 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x158d…9c64backed Czechia45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013454.5%73 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d4…2983backed Czechia45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked South Africa70c2,137$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.2520262.4%126 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf44…71a4backed Czechia26c2,063$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.374348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9efc…cce5backed South Africa72c2,022$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56210458.7%61 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Czechia26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52023729.1%69 W · 168 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked South Africa72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56011657.8%67 W · 49 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x974b…076ebacked Czechia26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5205530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Czechia35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70024917.7%44 W · 205 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d6…910dbacked Czechia25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001752.9%9 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+219.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x94f1…54a1backed Czechia27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54012738.6%49 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Czechia40c1,999$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.5513826.1%36 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Czechia27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011640.5%47 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1129…6f00backed South Africa71c1,821$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.182665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked South Africa73c1,800$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48635352.7%186 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed South Africa73c1,800$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48635251.7%182 W · 170 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.