AI · resolved market
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf77107215fc7254de4eab1216d65ff98ea4cc48ff9e6f2645dd9986d214eca50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e12…8fe1backed No | 18c | 1,865$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.77 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc772…9be7backed No | 6c | 1,702$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 49c | 1,411$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.4 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 52c | 928.42$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 45c | 842$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.12 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 55c | 736.78$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.23 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 49c | 734$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.72 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 51c | 734$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.34 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 701.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 66c | 598.79$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.69 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 51c | 581.76$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.7 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 565.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 20c | 526.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.34 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 520.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 6c | 510.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 27c | 508.34$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 507.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 7c | 451.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8324…57fdbacked No | 6c | 436.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 21c | 415.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 7c | 410$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 405.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 6c | 404.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 6c | 354.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…f1dfbacked No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 4c | 297.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a15…25d3backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 49c | 274.94$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 75c | 271.93$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +494.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 64c | 245.78$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 244.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 80c | 240$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 238.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…9281backed Yes | 48c | 209.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…a22abacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 54c | 195.3$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 76c | 185.71$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 8c | 155.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 40c | 155.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 72c | 138.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…30f4backed No | 13c | 134.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 131.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 18c | 131$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 79c | 121.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 121.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…0d8fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 58c | 95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 31c | 89.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 85.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…bca8backed Yes | 24c | 82.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 39c | 71.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…afe1backed No | 41c | 65.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 22c | 53.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…816abacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 47c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 65c | 25.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Yes | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 42c | 25.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 46c | 22.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +216.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f3…01eabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 53c | 19.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grok 4.20 not be released by February 14, 2026?this page
- Will Grok 4.20 be released before February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 12, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.