TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x642b…0ee0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
22
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+211.8%+$115.47
Hornets vs. Rocketsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+138.1%+$966.28
Jazz vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,227Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+29.9%+$366.39
Nets vs. Magicbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$355.2
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,605Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$1,605.42
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,114Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+122.2%+$1,361.25
Timberwolves vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$1,679.52
Lakers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Jazz vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,180
Nuggets vs. Pistonsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$728Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$727.61
76ers vs. Clippersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,045Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+127.3%+$1,330
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,462Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,462.4
Rockets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,247Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,247.07
All 13 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$27.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$17.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Alliance (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffsbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$13.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$17.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indiesbacked India · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.