TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb26e…f5a2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
25
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst La Liga at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST1631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Jazz vs. 76ersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$237.54
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+212.5%+$260.31
Nuggets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$59.7
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$59.71
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$60.06
Heat vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Bucks vs. Magicbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+354.5%+$106.36
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$29.83
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+354.5%+$84.42
76ers vs. Trail Blazersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$60.26
Pelicans vs. Timberwolvesbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+354.5%+$106.36
76ers vs. Lakersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$29.49
Spurs vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$36.17
Bulls vs. Raptorsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.73
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+257.1%+$75.88
All 16 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+81.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$60.3
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+78.6%+$104.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.25 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$75.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$29.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$774Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$773.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$179.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.