TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf913…6f1e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Premier League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 55 out of 100; worst NHL at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-42.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Hurricanesbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$50.84
Oilers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.73
Jets vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$50
Lightning vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.23
Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.54
Blues vs. Jetsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.71
Capitals vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$49.53
Blue Jackets vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.73
Blackhawks vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.88
Jets vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.87
Wild vs. Flamesbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.96
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$24.64
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.65
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$33.06
Grizzlies vs. Thunderbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.99
Bucks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$25.51
All 5 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+91.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 20, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cardinals vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$24.67
Orioles vs. Bravesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.5
Guardians vs. Tigersbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$44.46
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+28.7%+$13.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.07
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.