TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon: Nakashima vs. Sonego

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sonegoof Nakashima, Sonego
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,139 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbada…3fcbbacked Sonego45c22,387$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,387.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Nakashima49c12,759$6,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,267.481,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Nakashima61c9,524$5,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,816.7128043.2%121 W · 159 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3210…5c4ebacked Sonego67c5,987$4,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.92133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Nakashima58c5,016$2,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.1732141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Nakashima70c4,550$3,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,17913253.8%71 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa56…f232backed Sonego29c4,486$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,182.41435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nakashima48c4,252$2,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,033.6939144.2%173 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Sonego38c3,522$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.7710138.6%39 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Sonego60c3,467$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.71,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Sonego38c3,008$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,864.9815452.6%81 W · 73 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Nakashima58c3,008$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.193545.7%16 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+29.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Sonego33c1,841$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.126338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Sonego31c1,617$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.547943%34 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Sonego46c1,392$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.5243948.5%213 W · 226 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Nakashima51c1,206$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.981349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Sonego52c1,135$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.961,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Nakashima62c899.99$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.9912954.3%70 W · 59 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sonego29c897$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.691,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b9…4267backed Sonego63c809.19$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.554450%22 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x088c…3f3ebacked Sonego48c771.83$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.353262.5%20 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Sonego26c769.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.2328443%122 W · 162 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Sonego44c702.92$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.4913762.8%86 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f2…0659backed Nakashima51c665.62$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.983447.1%16 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+27.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Nakashima49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30038348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e78…52b5backed Sonego46c548.24$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.249348.4%45 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x519f…2af7backed Sonego56c537.13$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.132948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nakashima61c463.54$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.321,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f7…58dbbacked Sonego68c400$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1285253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e9…3a28backed Sonego25c380$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2852133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+40.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Nakashima62c373.68$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.689652.1%50 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51f…482fbacked Nakashima30c355.52$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Sonego37c312$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.5695140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5284…4e87backed Nakashima59c306.78$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Sonego40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd22c…53e9backed Sonego51c288.95$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.553056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2516…f107backed Nakashima78c256.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0455…e25abacked Sonego40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4c6…ddcdbacked Nakashima70c234.95$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nakashima60c232.53$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.522,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c3…b35abacked Sonego42c201.58$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.913348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Sonego32c200$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13725330%76 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Nakashima62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a62…57cabacked Sonego30c165.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.593540%14 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nakashima62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048043.3%208 W · 272 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nakashima62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063942.4%271 W · 368 L+1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5dd…7564backed Nakashima51c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.173345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Sonego38c130.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7724529.8%73 W · 172 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nakashima60c120$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.210252%53 W · 49 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b50…6c55backed Sonego77c110.49$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.41862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Nakashima57c106.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606331.7%20 W · 43 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Sonego38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6262952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed Sonego35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Nakashima62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6215957.2%91 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1421…644bbacked Sonego77c89$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.472128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf747…f687backed Sonego36c82.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.983253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x355a…98a6backed Nakashima63c78.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018839.9%75 W · 113 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb520…c3d0backed Sonego26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Nakashima75c72.82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6212737%47 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x447d…630cbacked Sonego54c72.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.22825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-54.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8d6…0062backed Nakashima51c71.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.266139.3%24 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fa7…04bfbacked Sonego55c69.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.096949.3%34 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd10…f4bcbacked Sonego58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.971080%8 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+33.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Sonego37c66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.584599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce09…6b0bbacked Nakashima62c64.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27d6…21f7backed Nakashima32c62.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc537…d662backed Sonego36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.561428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab6…cfecbacked Sonego37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0512927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Sonego37c52.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.220431.4%64 W · 140 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d5…e8c9backed Nakashima62c50.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.041656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Sonego38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317149.3%35 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Nakashima63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.517349.1%85 W · 88 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Nakashima56c49.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283447.1%16 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10f4…3b7ebacked Sonego44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4513044.6%58 W · 72 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e9…3166backed Nakashima78c44.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+78.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0667…42e1backed Nakashima47c44.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.838351.8%43 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Sonego33c41.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.062,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9de…1815backed Sonego34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7732…fa11backed Sonego46c34.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.73540%14 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Nakashima62c33.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5612253.3%65 W · 57 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf112…21ebbacked Sonego37c30.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2413864.5%89 W · 49 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a4…72adbacked Sonego66c29.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.21353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x393d…7084backed Sonego42c28.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.413948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0e4…38eabacked Nakashima80c26.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.911266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8495…df87backed Nakashima61c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9210266.7%68 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Nakashima64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.