TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,025
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,664

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,025 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes43c5,058$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.331,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes47c3,724$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.861,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes47c1,386$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.944,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes59c800.87$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.071,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed No42c800$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4641250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c799.37$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.295,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No63c725$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1677555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No62c700$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26611436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed No41c633.8$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.79341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c599.65$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes46c520.04$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.956744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No55c512.92$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.011,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16097152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No59c470.5$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.322,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No43c467.4$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.094,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No62c450$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17155954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes61c443.6$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.298,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No49c442.89$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.182,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes48c435.43$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.825,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed Yes60c424.72$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.834427.3%12 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No45c400.94$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.114,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No43c354.93$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.941,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2856…c8f9backed Yes48c310.68$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c302$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.895,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No39c274.18$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.64,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No46c269.54$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.721,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c248$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.774,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No43c246.97$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.822,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes62c192.6$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.953611.1%4 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c192.46$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No55c187.78$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.771,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes11c187.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.119545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked No31c178$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1217352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No45c158.86$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.81,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No41c158.85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0380560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No63c154.59$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.872,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes54c152.16$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.751,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No41c150$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c145.13$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.944,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes16c143.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.181,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes49c142$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No44c141.84$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No44c141.83$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.833,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes50c139.25$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4433746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No39c135.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes60c133.96$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No39c129.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa960…0606backed No44c126.3$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No75c121$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.915,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.225954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.41,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No41c105$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9512351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No54c98$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.472,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes60c95$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-64.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c85.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.696,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No36c84.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No50c78.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0353855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No60c78.72$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3942762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No45c78.23$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9630442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No47c75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes40c69.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No57c69.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2252758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No43c62.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.821,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4490555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes42c59.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No51c58.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8734151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes20c56.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9929219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No39c54.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No41c50.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5228163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.519259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3061752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.518235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2243959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.513351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes55c49.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4926256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes38c49.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0252446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x462f…fb33backed Yes49c44.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.44,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No49c36.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4727056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c33.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.399,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No59c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6728360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc436…76c9backed Yes57c28.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03b5…c585backed No55c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff82…bd3cbacked Yes54c26.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.391866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes49c26.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.781,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.254,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No56c24.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.681,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae92…329ebacked Yes60c23.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.292450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes58c22.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.876753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No77c21.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.052,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No80c21.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.331,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.