TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,912
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,141

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,912 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed No55c2,720$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.811,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes46c2,184$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.834,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes36c1,032$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.168,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes38c984.32$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.881,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No64c720.04$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.8597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes30c653.03$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.8431454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes46c645.66$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.672,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No61c624.71$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.24,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No48c416.16$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.424,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No67c403.34$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.714,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No64c400$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25655954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c399.43$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No29c352.9$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1570741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes48c350$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1821,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c329.71$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.595,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed No69c320.86$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.394427.3%12 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c302$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.75,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No51c245.97$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.286744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes49c238.25$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.431,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No56c231.92$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.991,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No59c231.5$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.957948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes71c222.9$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.669545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No23c216.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.131,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No69c214.81$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.582,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes33c212.02$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.693557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked No63c188.99$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.022030%6 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Yes29c186.12$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.312544%11 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No13c183.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.232,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c174.01$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.634,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes36c171.29$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2763255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes48c170$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.431936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes46c163$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.022,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c158.87$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.071,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No58c158.85$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c156$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.764,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes47c154$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.621,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No55c151.67$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.277151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No61c146.39$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.524,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No56c145.33$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9453855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac0…0cebbacked Yes47c141.64$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No55c139.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes30c133.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.922416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes34c129.67$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.038,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No65c118$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.713351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes47c108$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.247443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked Yes47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3813545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes47c105.32$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.821,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77a6…f21fbacked Yes47c101.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.554100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+135.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c98.92$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.589,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes46c95.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9875546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed No22c80.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9929219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No68c80$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No57c75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c73.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.19,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes76c70.84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.135,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes42c68.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3530332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No34c66.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5642762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c61.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.761,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd086…7bc1backed Yes42c56.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No52c56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.031,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No56c55.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.119852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No64c53.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.273,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c52.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No63c52.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0858358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes32c51.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes32c51.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.963,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2851…d63cbacked No60c50.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.293444.1%15 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c50.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.23,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No56c50.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0328163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc84f…d217backed No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c74…ab27backed No57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51540%6 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1361752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No62c49.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9923677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c47.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6880050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c45.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.286,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes47c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2646148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.853353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes39c38.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6654335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36aa…6dcebacked No61c38.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes73c38.49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5265749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c37.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes47c37.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.781,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No56c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6528360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No52c33.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.381,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes56c31.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9152446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d3…5122backed Yes79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No69c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0194066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes58c28.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.071,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes38c27.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.891,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03b5…c585backed No55c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.852240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes43c26.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2518043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No51c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.751,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No63c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.728455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No57c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.112,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.