La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ed169d529375d81990fe03e1f9304fcabca36f6ec65520e9ea9dfb7d6f80f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked Under | 76c | 22,339$16,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,464.72 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 18,887$3,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,079.13 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…2edfbacked Under | 80c | 5,702$4,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 23c | 4,172$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.21 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 2,506$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.6 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 17c | 1,835$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.64 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 19c | 1,750$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.71 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 27c | 1,726$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.88 | 171 | 28.1%48 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 22c | 1,627$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.17 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Over | 26c | 1,296$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…0e51backed Over | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 76c | 873.55$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.49 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2c…a49cbacked Over | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 10c | 753.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 74c | 687$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 24c | 460$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 25c | 411.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…c873backed Under | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 75c | 399.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 25c | 391.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 18c | 390.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 74c | 371.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 280 | 45.4%127 W · 153 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 27c | 368.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 73c | 334.44$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 25c | 301.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 24c | 281.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 644 | 57%367 W · 277 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Over | 5c | 249.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 229.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 24c | 225.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3803…765ebacked Under | 74c | 199.45$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…336cbacked Under | 76c | 192.54$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 26c | 192.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 440 | 39.3%173 W · 267 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 25c | 178$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 177.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Under | 75c | 133.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 10c | 132.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 281 | 38.8%109 W · 172 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…c2aebacked Over | 26c | 126.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 9c | 125.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…cdffbacked Under | 74c | 123.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 26c | 105.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 76c | 96.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 25c | 96.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 15c | 75.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 74c | 67.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Under | 74c | 65.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…fc98backed Over | 22c | 63.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 25c | 49.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 326 | 45.4%148 W · 178 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf5…e0d5backed Over | 25c | 47.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 417 | 51.8%216 W · 201 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 25c | 45.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…117abacked Under | 75c | 34.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…bfbebacked Under | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f8…8630backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 75c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 331 | 61.3%203 W · 128 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…a403backed Under | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 74c | 19.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…7460backed Under | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Oviedo won
- Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.