Earnings · resolved market
Will Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x487a9d40d3a160eae8342a0c0df57b3c854f4052edf8143d448d3a0b8c7e3436
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 10,743$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 35c | 1,659$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.67 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 54c | 886.23$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.23 | 64 | 100%64 W · 0 L | +25.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 66c | 756$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 51c | 589.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.33 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 66c | 482.71$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.05 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed No | 64c | 429.1$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 47c | 402.28$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27d…13fbbacked No | 65c | 287.03$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed Yes | 44c | 258.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 41c | 245.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes | 48c | 207.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 37c | 166.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 160.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 152.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed No | 63c | 145.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 52c | 137.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 58c | 134$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed No | 50c | 118.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 48c | 101.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0340…6907backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…7f28backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…d06ebacked Yes | 52c | 84.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked No | 60c | 83.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 82.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 52c | 82.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e1…7a6dbacked Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…3281backed Yes | 42c | 59.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…3d2abacked Yes | 52c | 57.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 57.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 41c | 56.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 66c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…90c1backed No | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 64c | 44.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 34c | 44.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 52c | 44.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…3954backed No | 63c | 42.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0319backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…7eeabacked No | 60c | 38.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked Yes | 52c | 38.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…c84dbacked No | 65c | 33.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…644abacked No | 56c | 32.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef00…1e50backed No | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…e1f4backed No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 40c | 26.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 53c | 24.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…ee3fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed Yes | 52c | 21.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2245…77e4backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.