Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4db625c162e1de724ed434474b6dd17958f5c7f9b83fb163624bb0ff092e3c84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fulham FCof Chelsea FC, Fulham FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Chelsea FC | 12c | 8,459$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.98 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Chelsea FC | 12c | 7,502$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.78 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chelsea FC | 1c | 3,403$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Chelsea FC | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 197 | 29.4%58 W · 139 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8089…f935backed Chelsea FC | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…e7e0backed Chelsea FC | 12c | 1,067$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…0aa1backed Chelsea FC | 10c | 484.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…e974backed Chelsea FC | 12c | 404$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…5ae1backed Chelsea FC | 14c | 362.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Chelsea FC | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…bac3backed Chelsea FC | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…f11ebacked Chelsea FC | 14c | 217.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chelsea FC | 12c | 191.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a0…6702backed Chelsea FC | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Chelsea FC | 14c | 169.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Chelsea FC | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Chelsea FC | 39c | 127.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Fulham FC | 66c | 81.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Chelsea FC | 34c | 76.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Chelsea FC | 46c | 67.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3f…1422backed Chelsea FC | 21c | 59.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Fulham FC | 80c | 53.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Chelsea FC | 38c | 47.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Fulham FC | 76c | 46.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Chelsea FC | 28c | 44.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Fulham FC | 67c | 39.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Fulham FC | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +13.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Fulham FC | 51c | 25.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)this page
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Chelsea FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Chelsea FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Chelsea FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Chelsea FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Fulham FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Fulham FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Fulham FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Fulham FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Fulham FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Fulham FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.