TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Tempoof Minnesota Lynx, Toronto Tempo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,557
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,557 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx49c9,466$4,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,667.0699548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Tempo48c4,802$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,510.8250646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Minnesota Lynx52c4,206$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.7438645.9%177 W · 209 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Tempo53c2,716$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.3937141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Toronto Tempo53c2,100$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.6910338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Toronto Tempo51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.9913746%63 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bcf…c767backed Minnesota Lynx49c1,990$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.129140.7%37 W · 54 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Toronto Tempo46c1,291$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.2819446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Lynx51c1,163$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.6732540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Minnesota Lynx47c983.04$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.549650%48 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Toronto Tempo53c948.2$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Tempo30c870$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.1826147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Tempo49c832.45$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.221,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Lynx49c799.25$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.41,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Toronto Tempo41c733.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.335141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Tempo32c719.85$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.150952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Toronto Tempo50c677$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.531043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Minnesota Lynx47c636.3$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.055945.8%27 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Tempo46c578.65$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.7830347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Lynx52c483.02$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.3785158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Toronto Tempo56c453.19$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.5355255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Minnesota Lynx45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Minnesota Lynx46c420.15$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2710445.2%47 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5843…db42backed Toronto Tempo49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.163063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Toronto Tempo52c406.73$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5320340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x379a…5122backed Minnesota Lynx48c391.67$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1884339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Lynx47c386.23$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8392248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Tempo48c385.69$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.932049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Toronto Tempo48c340$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.2223955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Toronto Tempo47c335.92$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1241147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Minnesota Lynx48c303$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.442445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Toronto Tempo50c278$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7531448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Toronto Tempo49c278$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7736454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Toronto Tempo49c278$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0730649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Minnesota Lynx52c251$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5213249.2%65 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Lynx49c224.51$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0171245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked Toronto Tempo54c220.96$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.961752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Minnesota Lynx46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008743.7%38 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Toronto Tempo48c210$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.21936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0c…7047backed Minnesota Lynx48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf807…c5dcbacked Minnesota Lynx50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Minnesota Lynx49c197.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Toronto Tempo52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Minnesota Lynx46c189.58$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3139947.1%188 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Minnesota Lynx53c186.02$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.987945.6%36 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Toronto Tempo50c185.7$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.314452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Minnesota Lynx48c164$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6728558.6%167 W · 118 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked Minnesota Lynx49c147$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.03520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Tempo52c143.48$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3283748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Toronto Tempo48c128.13$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.085853.4%31 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Toronto Tempo32c127.43$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3615654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Toronto Tempo45c123.38$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.865541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Toronto Tempo52c110$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.86030%18 W · 42 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Toronto Tempo47c109.97$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.988836.4%32 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Toronto Tempo51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4911351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Toronto Tempo51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Toronto Tempo50c98.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8924656.5%139 W · 107 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Toronto Tempo51c98.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.17150.7%36 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Toronto Tempo52c95.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3215553.5%83 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Minnesota Lynx55c94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.713649.3%67 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Minnesota Lynx55c94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.738650.3%194 W · 192 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4f…b174backed Toronto Tempo49c87.89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.174942.9%21 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Toronto Tempo50c87.65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4215453.2%82 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3d…1a59backed Minnesota Lynx52c86.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Minnesota Lynx48c85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.88045%36 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx50c83.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0689349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Toronto Tempo54c78.33$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9764152%333 W · 308 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Tempo48c73.78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6819245.8%88 W · 104 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Toronto Tempo34c70.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.377360.3%44 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Tempo50c65.76$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7132150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2827…4ee7backed Toronto Tempo48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick48cpaid-74%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ec7…4b43backed Toronto Tempo49c61.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.412642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Toronto Tempo44c58.46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.464850%24 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Toronto Tempo52c56.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1222446%103 W · 121 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Minnesota Lynx47c56.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3861547%289 W · 326 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d4d…2008backed Toronto Tempo47c51.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.011050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eaf…1f76backed Toronto Tempo39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.285773.7%42 W · 15 L+8.9wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Tempo50c50.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2732346.7%151 W · 172 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Minnesota Lynx55c50.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6534448%165 W · 179 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d28…0d64backed Toronto Tempo51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.55337.7%20 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Minnesota Lynx51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.513138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Tempo48c49.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9934918.3%64 W · 285 L-49.5wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Minnesota Lynx53c43.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.231241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Minnesota Lynx49c40.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked Minnesota Lynx69c40.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.043268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+26.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Minnesota Lynx50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Minnesota Lynx55c39.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9242649.3%210 W · 216 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…86d3backed Toronto Tempo45c39.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.927643.4%33 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312c…ceecbacked Minnesota Lynx47c37.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6950%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Minnesota Lynx45c36.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23156.7%1 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.29per pick36cpaid-86.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Toronto Tempo50c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.524347.7%116 W · 127 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Toronto Tempo30c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.528140.6%114 W · 167 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Toronto Tempo34c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.123470.6%24 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+46.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Minnesota Lynx52c28.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2285…2aeabacked Toronto Tempo47c28.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Toronto Tempo49c27.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.14650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05e…1323backed Toronto Tempo50c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Toronto Tempo50c26.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1432750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb663…f135backed Minnesota Lynx51c20.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc42…b12cbacked Toronto Tempo50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.