TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIAof Natus Vincere, FURIA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$333,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$403,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,817 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere53c50,491$26,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,954.8176058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed FURIA46c37,205$17,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,090.4822049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Natus Vincere18c17,326$3,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,045.133452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe1…4d7fbacked Natus Vincere53c10,471$5,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,577.195641.1%23 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked FURIA47c10,200$4,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,408.6117042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed FURIA47c6,919$3,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,687.1711638.8%45 W · 71 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Natus Vincere20c5,906$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.3622444.2%99 W · 125 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere7c5,737$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.7849646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Natus Vincere10c5,485$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.56634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed FURIA47c5,318$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,818.766126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere36c5,071$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.0446949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed FURIA48c4,999$2,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,624.581,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…aa06backed Natus Vincere16c4,959$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.664645.7%21 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere6c4,502$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.532,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed FURIA47c4,427$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.536446.7%170 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Natus Vincere54c4,304$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.041,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed FURIA46c4,304$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.9713238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FURIA46c3,974$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed FURIA44c3,913$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.572453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed FURIA45c3,723$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.1997040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7e…08fdbacked Natus Vincere55c3,554$1,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,945.73246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Natus Vincere54c3,487$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.5178963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Natus Vincere56c3,478$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,947.1835236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed FURIA47c3,280$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.413044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Natus Vincere11c3,257$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.1648437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked FURIA46c3,102$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,67181244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Natus Vincere1c3,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4469624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Natus Vincere13c2,926$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.4461228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Natus Vincere54c2,700$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.1940253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Natus Vincere10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25021424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x646f…6976backed Natus Vincere15c2,432$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.431533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed FURIA46c2,407$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.3520838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfaf…9206backed Natus Vincere1c2,352$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5221246.2%98 W · 114 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked FURIA46c2,185$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.0129235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Natus Vincere54c2,157$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.728738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Natus Vincere40c2,071$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.9746345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed FURIA51c2,060$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.5839248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed FURIA46c2,000$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.9851252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Natus Vincere53c1,944$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.1125555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked FURIA58c1,527$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.93,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere23c1,522$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2744648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.8646749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed FURIA47c1,453$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.2378639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked Natus Vincere7c1,450$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a0…dc24backed FURIA46c1,425$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.642835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f2…4ca4backed FURIA75c1,312$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.323470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Natus Vincere55c1,265$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.7627658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed FURIA80c1,124$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9422761.7%140 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed FURIA47c1,111$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.8315947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e86…fce6backed Natus Vincere53c1,100$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.082425%6 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b14…039bbacked FURIA74c1,099$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.7211871.2%84 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FURIA48c1,060$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.454,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Natus Vincere55c1,040$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.1231451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked FURIA47c1,030$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.919355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere33c1,027$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.31,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed FURIA47c1,011$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.5111133.3%37 W · 74 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed FURIA46c993.67$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.5826743.1%115 W · 152 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed FURIA47c982.99$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.9814151.8%73 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FURIA48c969.03$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa56f…ee5fbacked Natus Vincere52c927.71$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.712962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4985…dce4backed Natus Vincere6c909.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9813545.9%62 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed Natus Vincere55c909.31$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.125955.9%33 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf64f…9f48backed FURIA47c841.99$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.264325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Natus Vincere12c774.56$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.258755.9%328 W · 259 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked FURIA48c707.56$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.191,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed Natus Vincere54c686.08$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.4824944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Natus Vincere22c681.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020344.3%90 W · 113 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FURIA46c667.51$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.4564852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Natus Vincere39c660$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.615857.6%91 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Natus Vincere10c659.87$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.871,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FURIA66c655.08$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.646,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd0…389fbacked FURIA73c629.32$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.212263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef5…46e0backed Natus Vincere54c618.23$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed Natus Vincere17c572.86$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8316354%88 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked FURIA46c562.99$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.0113952.5%73 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Natus Vincere55c556.27$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.2324055.8%134 W · 106 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Natus Vincere54c540.22$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.7217357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FURIA47c532.51$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.235,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed FURIA45c521.47$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.7464552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x845a…c09bbacked FURIA50c511.97$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.351060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FURIA48c500.01$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…a614backed Natus Vincere56c495.82$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.6612138%46 W · 75 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FURIA46c477.85$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.045,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed FURIA54c467.62$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.2250947%239 W · 270 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x207e…fe24backed FURIA48c466.42$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe9…86a4backed FURIA55c449.97$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Natus Vincere21c449.74$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6618426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed Natus Vincere24c432.27$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.396333.3%21 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere27c423.01$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.614,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0311…f80ebacked Natus Vincere13c408.11$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1918126.5%48 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed Natus Vincere27c400$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10641645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf022…daddbacked Natus Vincere30c398.82$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.41520%3 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-59.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Natus Vincere55c396.43$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1184037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Natus Vincere55c389.2$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0642651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda54…63d4backed FURIA68c381.49$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.26634.8%23 W · 43 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked Natus Vincere48c375.73$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3518933.9%64 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Natus Vincere54c370.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9713058.5%76 W · 54 L-0.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7926…a4febacked Natus Vincere17c368.71$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.143158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Natus Vincere53c366.72$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3636749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Natus Vincere5c361.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0754732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.