Fifa International · resolved market
Lionel Messi: 4+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c4210ae85c164a769ff96c432902fd294dcab549868fb1452b789c94e45930a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e4…3c69backed Yes | 45c | 11,227$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…fa3abacked No | 59c | 5,606$3,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.56 | 162 | 60.5%98 W · 64 L | +22.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 744 | 47.8%356 W · 388 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 55c | 4,922$2,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.04 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed No | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Yes | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b8…3f4ebacked No | 57c | 1,250$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.5 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No | 54c | 1,212$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.36 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed No | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 56c | 999.98$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed No | 56c | 656.61$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.34 | 232 | 51.7%120 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes | 45c | 590$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.4 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 57c | 452.65$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.06 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 44c | 435$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.4 | 630 | 35.7%225 W · 405 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 45c | 425.93$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…0cdebacked No | 55c | 410.89$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.03 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 54c | 332.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.07 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 42c | 236.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 54.6%172 W · 143 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 58c | 220$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Yes | 40c | 187.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 572 | 52.4%300 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes | 43c | 114.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 56c | 107.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…23b3backed Yes | 41c | 95.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 56c | 87.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 462 | 30.1%139 W · 323 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 462 | 47.6%220 W · 242 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…6390backed No | 55c | 79.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 59c | 76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 698 | 26.1%182 W · 516 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c5…8d6ebacked No | 57c | 63.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ba…dcfdbacked No | 55c | 60.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…bdafbacked Yes | 42c | 60.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked No | 57c | 60.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Yes | 41c | 43.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 44c | 43.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed No | 56c | 41.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 403 | 52.1%210 W · 193 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ea…3955backed Yes | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5abc…ec69backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c4…1018backed No | 57c | 31.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 50c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…bf6cbacked No | 60c | 29.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83e7…4aebbacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09a…5cb8backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 173 | 56.1%97 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…a787backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…51fdbacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…0687backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed No | 55c | 21.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 420 | 48.8%205 W · 215 L | +18.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe027…ce6cbacked No | 56c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8534…34d2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 452 | 54.6%247 W · 205 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 28 | 96.4%27 W · 1 L | +6.6wins | +0.23per pick | 73cpaid | +40%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 93. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lionel Messi: 4+ shotsthis page
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shotsYes won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on targetNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ assistsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ goalsYes won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ shotsYes won
- Anthony Gordon: 2+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 2+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 3+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on targetNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 4+ shotsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ assistsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ shotsYes won
- Declan Rice: 2+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 2+ shotsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 1+ goalsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 2+ goalsNo won
- Elliot Anderson: 2+ shotsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ assistsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsYes won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ shotsYes won
- Enzo Fernández: 2+ shotsYes won
- Enzo Fernández: 3+ shotsYes won
- Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assistsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ shotsYes won
- Harry Kane: 2+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 3+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 3+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 4+ shotsNo won
- Jordan Pickford: 4+ savesNo won
- Jordan Pickford: 5+ savesNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 4+ shotsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ shotsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.