TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Liberal Party win the Nunavut seat in the next Canadian Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$411,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe2f0…2147backed Yes48c35,810$17,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,188.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc2…3092backed No52c35,810$18,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,188.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc3…f339backed Yes47c30,211$14,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,199.1740%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8961…cca0backed No53c30,211$16,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,199.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e57…5f66backed Yes47c28,856$13,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,562.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2623…9454backed No53c28,856$15,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,562.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f7…ebdcbacked No57c28,044$15,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,058.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfab3…faa2backed Yes43c28,044$12,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,058.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c03…40edbacked Yes46c26,106$12,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,008.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2da…682bbacked No54c26,106$14,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,008.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964e…a040backed Yes44c21,902$9,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,636.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56bb…5637backed No56c21,902$12,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,636.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes45c16,534$7,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,453.8426139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes53c5,919$3,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.157345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes56c3,953$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.8110122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No55c3,704$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.095664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes44c3,696$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.2743243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No45c3,200$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.9925337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes45c2,523$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.3814947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes57c2,088$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.768047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88012129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No44c1,893$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.9313525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes46c1,694$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.154934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes41c1,500$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.063333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked Yes41c1,246$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.55141.2%21 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes52c908.36$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.253250%16 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7538…403cbacked No45c875$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes43c869$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.2710331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes44c850$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37812630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No56c807.67$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.3716744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes50c767.68$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.5510533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes46c766.88$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.4727828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes46c757.76$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.7437117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No54c751$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.356930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes51c526.5$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.627834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes43c444.16$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7738023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c441.58$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.381,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…7479backed Yes43c380.99$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc229…6e02backed Yes51c380$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c5…ead5backed Yes55c355$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Yes42c349.9$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.965242.3%22 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f6…d90ebacked No45c320$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1762100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74a7…9204backed No51c320$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes41c313.87$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5619623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes47c308.51$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14531534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c07…48d9backed Yes76c295$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.2560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab4…9464backed Yes55c290$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d62…f8eabacked Yes53c260$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x539d…ccf3backed Yes55c260$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c250.5$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11813639%53 W · 83 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes53c249.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes41c229$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9912332.5%40 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes42c204.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.723638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+340%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb06…d702backed No49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10824736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f3…34b6backed No51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes41c194$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.217037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a2…6a88backed Yes53c190$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.73053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No51c189.28$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1657636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa26…2f53backed No49c180$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+75.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd112…c648backed Yes55c180$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d59…db0abacked Yes55c180$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes44c166.08$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.265238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47bf…b84fbacked No54c135.81$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.121833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9053…7915backed Yes44c125$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-78%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes55c121.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.98328.9%24 W · 59 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No58c120.46$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.789659.4%57 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No57c120.31$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.971,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No55c115.5$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.45653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc430…3c45backed No44c113$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.283534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c6e…07c3backed Yes55c110$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0653…690ebacked Yes55c110$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.530%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No12c100.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0320034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462055%11 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f1…bb92backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes41c99.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.992138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No48c99.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.731942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66fc…b3b6backed No50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+46.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes40c79$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.614834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked No65c77.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.088861.4%54 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58ca…cc33backed No24c70$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.21241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes54c64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5619237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No50c57.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.987762.3%48 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3331443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2020051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.181526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-59.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ede…c417backed Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52917.2%5 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-59.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes43c45.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.776735.8%24 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d13…cd85backed Yes63c42.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.836742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4b8…2d61backed Yes55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d55…2ae8backed No30c39.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.121741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Yes53c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.084351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.