Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa22177e10c137888eb195a29d8618ec939021dae71fb0b43b38468c574ec317d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,138
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,138 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Under	71c	5,104$3,632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,471.93	4,696	41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	35c	5,047$1,782 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,264.91	953	32.5%310 W · 643 L	-8.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	4,374$2,464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,910.46	6,047	45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L	-21.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over	53c	3,469$1,835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,834.58	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-8.1wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over	71c	2,816$1,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,999.36	850	48.4%411 W · 439 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	71c	2,550$1,806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$744.58	1,615	34.9%564 W · 1,051 L	-28.7wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	14c	2,538$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.04	772	36.4%281 W · 491 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78e3…2bcabacked Under	36c	2,232$804 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,428.76	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-5.2wins	-0.18per pick	39cpaid	-47%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	64c	2,135$1,367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,366.62	812	34.7%282 W · 530 L	-24.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5630…6ca8backed Over	58c	1,860$1,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,070.36	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	61cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	15c	1,620$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.84	697	42.5%296 W · 401 L	+13.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	29c	1,000$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710	808	53.6%433 W · 375 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Over	74c	999.99$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$739.99	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25d1…173bbacked Over	10c	882.98$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.48	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	16c	819.09$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.25	134	44.8%60 W · 74 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa3…e22bbacked Over	44c	681.82$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2983…4eb2backed Under	44c	677.04$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.04	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Under	77c	607.89$468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.29	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…c59ebacked Under	44c	600$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+28%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb511…e800backed Under	30c	585.87$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.87	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-4.5wins	-0.28per pick	47cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Over	64c	582.68$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.78	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e54…0466backed Over	73c	568.11$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.72	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	71c	533.2$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.57	97	35.1%34 W · 63 L	-9.0wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	71c	512$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.52	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+4.3wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed Over	38c	500.01$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Over	27c	477.45$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.04	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	30c	474.11$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.35	541	32.9%178 W · 363 L	-28.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8220…b081backed Under	44c	449.49$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.49	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeda…8e35backed Over	54c	429.62$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.99	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over	71c	306.23$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.1	696	51.1%356 W · 340 L	+6.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	26c	288.34$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.37	578	47.8%276 W · 302 L	+18.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over	36c	280.92$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.61	120	45%54 W · 66 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x715d…a4babacked Over	46c	250$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	52cpaid	+31.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under	53c	243.4$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.4	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	27c	237.57$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.72	553	51.9%287 W · 266 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0035…f536backed Over	49c	204.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6779…2ff6backed Over	71c	140.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over	16c	136.63$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb8a…0fd1backed Over	71c	131$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.01	20	60%12 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Under	78c	123.43$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.41	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over	19c	120$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	59	32.2%19 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9152…abfbbacked Under	51c	117.65$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.65	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under	29c	116.09$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.49	157	40.1%63 W · 94 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	26c	111.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.94	407	21.9%89 W · 318 L	-53.3wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over	18c	111$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over	19c	111$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	110	49.1%54 W · 56 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	30c	105.1$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.57	755	42.3%319 W · 436 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked Over	49c	104.08$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Under	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	531	34.5%183 W · 348 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	59c	98.33$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	193	56%108 W · 85 L	+21.4wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under	29c	92.5$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.22	136	33.8%46 W · 90 L	-9.9wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1d2…c938backed Over	62c	80.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	70cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	71c	79.98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.64	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c5c…d463backed Over	52c	74$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.21	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over	36c	66.08$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.99	116	53.4%62 W · 54 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over	41c	59.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	411	60.1%247 W · 164 L	+22.1wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Under	61c	58$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.7	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over	70c	55.28$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.96	105	43.8%46 W · 59 L	-8.9wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-20%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Over	74c	52.54$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Over	69c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e6b…172abacked Over	37c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	71c	49.93$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.27	1,923	42.4%815 W · 1,108 L	-42.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	70c	47.39$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.33	273	56.4%154 W · 119 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over	71c	46.48$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	61	68.9%42 W · 19 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over	34c	44.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Under	57c	40.72$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.43	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over	63c	40.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.46	115	55.7%64 W · 51 L	+13.5wins	+0.12per pick	44cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	62c	38.52$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.8	192	44.8%86 W · 106 L	-10.2wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	79c	37$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	412	43.4%179 W · 233 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over	63c	37$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	209	56%117 W · 92 L	+15.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4971…eb04backed Over	71c	35.21$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fde…095bbacked Over	69c	28.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	71cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Under	59c	28.01$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.58	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Under	47c	24.43$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.95	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over	63c	22.16$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+3.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a4d…71c6backed Over	71c	21.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Over	63c	21.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	212	50%106 W · 106 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xace3…f9b0backed Over	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	74cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5this page
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: Leeds United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: Leeds United FC O/U 0.5Over won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: Leeds United FC O/U 2.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: Nottingham Forest FC O/U 1.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: Nottingham Forest FC O/U 2.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Leeds United FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event