TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Team Falcons, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,119,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,236,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,119,905 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 434 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora61c338,121$207,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130,427.7428748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Team Falcons38c271,001$104,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,269.5916147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora60c125,859$76,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,859.181,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf50…2dd8backed Team Falcons0c81,110$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.11650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0286…f61dbacked Team Falcons39c76,446$29,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,823.823542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons38c54,558$20,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,786.2928159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Team Falcons6c26,066$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.514825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora62c25,000$15,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,50096557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Aurora62c21,258$13,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,090.519847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons41c20,000$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,20042650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Aurora73c17,066$12,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,663.9671143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons37c16,400$6,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,039.451,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Falcons38c16,078$6,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,109.6543344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Aurora60c15,958$9,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,383.0912560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team Falcons39c14,615$5,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,708.0430336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons40c14,444$5,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,783.6336041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Team Falcons39c12,691$4,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,908.541735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Aurora61c12,254$7,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,778.928847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Falcons34c12,037$4,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,040.7650347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Aurora60c11,111$6,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,488.9115951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Aurora62c10,806$6,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,130.666139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Team Falcons38c10,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.9947646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Team Falcons36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.9910641.5%44 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Aurora62c9,528$5,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,575.0816746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Team Falcons39c7,844$3,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,02822340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Falcons40c7,798$3,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1061,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Falcons41c7,000$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,87089741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6e…b0e0backed Team Falcons38c7,000$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,66010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Falcons38c6,853$2,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,627.6495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Falcons42c6,069$2,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,538.2988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Team Falcons39c6,037$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.615740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Team Falcons2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons36c5,973$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.131,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Aurora63c5,950$3,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.4221158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons31c5,485$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.3677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a8…246dbacked Team Falcons40c5,160$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0641369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+52.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Aurora62c5,025$3,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.513851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Aurora62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,90022848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora63c5,000$3,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.51,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Team Falcons37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.9829042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora74c4,931$3,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.8441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Team Falcons41c4,878$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9913456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Aurora63c4,745$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.948360.2%50 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Falcons21c4,269$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora59c4,080$2,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.855751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd3…6c9abacked Team Falcons21c4,006$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.831353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed Team Falcons40c3,750$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Aurora62c3,735$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.0150850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Team Falcons39c3,728$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45548843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora77c3,697$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.5653764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora61c3,601$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.741,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Team Falcons1c3,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351153.5%4 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Team Falcons23c3,500$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80510646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Aurora73c3,444$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.6977256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons36c3,391$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.7169644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Team Falcons44c3,372$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.7519148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1b3…b86cbacked Team Falcons30c3,294$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003565.7%23 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+36.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora62c3,250$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23541055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons37c3,174$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.2560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Aurora68c3,174$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.820159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Aurora60c3,139$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.6831248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Aurora61c3,052$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.381,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Falcons33c3,007$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.1137945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons21c2,939$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.31,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons10c2,843$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.4299844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked Aurora67c2,698$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Falcons39c2,658$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.7860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora67c2,624$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.948954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Aurora60c2,621$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.8560552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x483a…01d6backed Team Falcons39c2,594$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.497545.3%34 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Aurora70c2,590$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.7848057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Aurora77c2,528$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.2536547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons41c2,500$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Falcons29c2,462$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.9452046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Aurora59c2,357$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.23956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora61c2,311$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.7556955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Team Falcons41c2,196$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.9616954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Team Falcons10c2,157$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.518726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora60c2,150$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x790e…b82dbacked Team Falcons35c2,055$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.552445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Falcons37c2,030$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.9841944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed Aurora71c2,021$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.583145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Falcons31c2,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61020145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc6…13c4backed Team Falcons30c1,977$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58911449.1%56 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Aurora67c1,782$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.4236343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31f4…bb20backed Team Falcons11c1,752$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.43016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-61%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x29e8…091cbacked Team Falcons22c1,739$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3912030%6 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed Team Falcons38c1,720$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.614136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Falcons25c1,704$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons3c1,700$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4837811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora77c1,690$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.979859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Aurora73c1,676$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.5928251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Aurora63c1,616$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.1135151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Falcons39c1,615$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.3554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Aurora76c1,606$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.6214562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Aurora65c1,600$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.8825752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Aurora63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.1941351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora63c1,579$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.9821650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora59c1,554$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.0585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Falcons41c1,553$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.7335737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.