College Football · resolved market
Spread: Vanderbilt (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8cdb34040635425918946c0fb9673c65ca8d5eea00a1997b369354ff37c4f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowaof Vanderbilt, Iowa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,395,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,402,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,395,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Vanderbilt | 48c | 1,169,927$563,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563,923.07 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Iowa | 51c | 600,000$308,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291,999.98 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Iowa | 52c | 171,125$88,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,987.17 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Iowa | 52c | 149,623$77,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,819.07 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Vanderbilt | 49c | 134,252$65,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,919.66 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Iowa | 53c | 70,219$37,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,012.56 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Iowa | 51c | 37,839$19,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,658.5 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Iowa | 51c | 34,353$17,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,809.13 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Iowa | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,100 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Vanderbilt | 48c | 20,833$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Iowa | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Iowa | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,400 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Iowa | 53c | 20,000$10,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,499.99 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Iowa | 52c | 15,688$8,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,594.82 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Iowa | 52c | 13,000$6,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,300 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Iowa | 54c | 12,843$6,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,907.98 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Iowa | 52c | 11,056$5,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,354.88 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…d3eabacked Iowa | 53c | 5,030$2,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Iowa | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Iowa | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Iowa | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Iowa | 52c | 1,670$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.6 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Vanderbilt | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Vanderbilt | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Iowa | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Iowa | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Vanderbilt | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Iowa | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Vanderbilt | 46c | 376.9$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Iowa | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…36b5backed Iowa | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Iowa | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Iowa | 56c | 249.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Vanderbilt | 44c | 241.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Iowa | 53c | 196.51$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Iowa | 54c | 188.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…3984backed Iowa | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Iowa | 53c | 166.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Iowa | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Iowa | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Vanderbilt | 48c | 80.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0e…b74abacked Iowa | 51c | 79.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…e0a8backed Iowa | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Iowa | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…1e06backed Vanderbilt | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Vanderbilt | 46c | 64.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Iowa | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Iowa | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Iowa | 54c | 46.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…1417backed Iowa | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Iowa | 51c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf69…e285backed Vanderbilt | 48c | 44.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed Vanderbilt | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Iowa | 50c | 39.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4322…06f0backed Iowa | 53c | 36.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…753bbacked Iowa | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Iowa | 52c | 29.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…2f66backed Iowa | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…8696backed Vanderbilt | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Iowa | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…399dbacked Iowa | 53c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…3d81backed Iowa | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-3.5)this page
- Iowa vs. VanderbiltIowa won
- Iowa vs. Vanderbilt: 1H MoneylineIowa won
- Iowa vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 45.5Over won
- Iowa vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 46.5Over won
- O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-4.5)Iowa won
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-5.5)Iowa won
- Spread: Vanderbilt (-6.5)Iowa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.