TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$173,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,554 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No11c7,625$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.5363414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes79c5,001$3,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.9456429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No1c4,200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.812424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No24c3,680$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87419756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No14c3,042$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.061,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No18c3,035$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.1440719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes79c2,637$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.4253522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd13d…a958backed No3c2,308$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-43.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No17c2,166$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.3530955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No3c1,945$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.454568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes79c1,945$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.5516941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No24c1,940$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.4688018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fa…1efbbacked No5c1,849$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes53c1,758$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.4117723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No21c1,728$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.6157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No28c1,724$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.9410330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes74c1,620$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.572373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes77c1,606$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.6923212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No26c1,577$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.5162539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked No2c1,488$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.291827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No10c1,420$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9927224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No26c1,361$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.798148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a9…924ebacked Yes80c1,256$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.462060%12 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No2c1,241$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.159423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes48c1,200$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.838321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No25c1,197$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.091,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No18c1,177$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9610052%52 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No23c1,155$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.7188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20d…d518backed No46c1,096$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.142544%11 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes51c1,014$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.4154122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes66c974.35$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.196622.7%15 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No21c929.02$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.8818358.5%107 W · 76 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70e3…5e8cbacked Yes47c922.99$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.36610.6%7 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes55c899.66$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.8139723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No25c878.34$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.694944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes78c833.33$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18343719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c746.98$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.18532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes55c733.77$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed No5c716$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.87216.7%12 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No25c710$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9214451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c706$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.532,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2379…178ebacked No4c670$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.85827.6%16 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No32c665$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1924155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes65c609.61$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.366839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No20c589.09$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.438253.7%44 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes77c585.77$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7714219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No4c554.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.837439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No29c531.74$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9216750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes57c528.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.3332529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes69c510.81$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.358342.2%35 W · 48 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes71c509.04$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.8534427%93 W · 251 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes57c500.76$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.397826.9%21 W · 57 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x863b…4f2cbacked Yes72c489.99$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.26235.5%22 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No28c440$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.214864.9%96 W · 52 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed No30c439.08$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.931624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes77c415.24$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6614137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes63c413.29$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.556421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1c…5aebbacked Yes76c400$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes69c399.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9942628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes75c399.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.947251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No47c397.23$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2563821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a02…2d8bbacked Yes59c391.03$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.32977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No8c388.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6128723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked Yes77c380.05$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5513235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes49c363.58$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.092,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes56c356.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.6834833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No3c353.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5d…333fbacked Yes79c350$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.51258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes75c340$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1327820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes53c313.36$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.321,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes64c305.49$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2616110.6%17 W · 144 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes35c294.48$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.2817824.7%44 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Yes56c285.96$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9615932.7%52 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No46c279.43$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8222160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes51c276.09$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2815435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02cb…569cbacked Yes63c266.41$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.714214.3%6 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No34c262.93$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.677045.7%32 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No54c261.19$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.8629225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd594…9d1bbacked No23c252$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes60c236.99$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9622227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed No27c235.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6650828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d2…8dacbacked Yes57c234.06$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.611833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes73c231.1$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5111224.1%27 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes59c226.85$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0310617%18 W · 88 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed Yes60c221.82$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7316056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd28…710dbacked No45c220.68$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.313951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e7…1c56backed Yes49c205.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.813040%12 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No53c198.55$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.963066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e0…e538backed Yes58c195.12$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.26944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes44c188.72$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.685024%12 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd971…f3c1backed No7c188.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No6c180$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.529233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8020…60e3backed Yes56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.573461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No53c176.18$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.389057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2311…99ecbacked Yes57c172.41$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.144924.5%12 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No41c172.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4320857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes60c162.14$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8649919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813f…17e5backed Yes70c160.97$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.29560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes40c158.87$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.879226.1%24 W · 68 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.