Music · resolved market
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdd7c15978e1ba1fd52fbaf8aca4461182d52d884b4f5f6894e97eb147a85cc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 14c | 53,530$7,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,136.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 78c | 11,368$8,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,840.52 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,762$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.07 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 67c | 1,425$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.98 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 75c | 1,316$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.55 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 71c | 1,109$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed No | 77c | 1,070$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 51c | 1,037$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 13c | 931.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.86 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 30c | 600$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 474$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.84 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 73c | 368.94$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No | 13c | 316.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 18c | 291.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.87 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…836fbacked Yes | 16c | 274.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +205.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…d7b9backed No | 6c | 271$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 241.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.27 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…17d7backed Yes | 8c | 237.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,085.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…17c9backed Yes | 17c | 200.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +499.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 199.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 194.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.05 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 72c | 136.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 18c | 135.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 119.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 101.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 77c | 95.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 71c | 95.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 69c | 91.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 16c | 87.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +212.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 20c | 81.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +190.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 66c | 76.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 18c | 69.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…aa91backed No | 79c | 65.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 68c | 51.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 27.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…bd85backed No | 70c | 20.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…5da8backed No | 79c | 17.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…0b64backed No | 79c | 12.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…7e8cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Doors - Noah Kahan" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.