Music · resolved market
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8da108bed501709b26d6eb69c2490901004cfc8a8de21a1226946c50101d03b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed No | 13c | 39,082$5,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,835.67 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 72c | 7,638$5,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,530.55 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 12c | 3,687$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,261.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 73c | 2,784$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 5c | 2,037$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.67 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 30c | 1,822$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 24c | 1,334$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.86 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,286$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 18c | 1,098$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 57c | 1,065$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.21 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 71c | 750.12$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.95 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 16c | 692.44$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.04 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…7467backed Yes | 80c | 502.51$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 485.32$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.65 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 45c | 455.86$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 75c | 374.05$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.21 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 18c | 360.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.92 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 14c | 284$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.1 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked No | 46c | 269.49$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 13c | 250.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.08 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 240.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.91 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…aa91backed No | 16c | 197.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 64c | 180.77$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 77c | 180.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 10c | 142$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 24c | 136.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 20c | 133.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 55c | 131.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 22c | 126.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 16c | 119.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 12c | 119.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 13c | 114$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…df40backed Yes | 78c | 105$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Yes | 79c | 97.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed No | 49c | 91.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 32c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +103%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 84.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 21c | 71.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 27c | 70.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +190.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…b269backed No | 40c | 63.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 22c | 50.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 49.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 24c | 44.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 35c | 42.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…bc94backed Yes | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…385cbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 76c | 23.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…5dd0backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…8627backed Yes | 77c | 19.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f9…eac7backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…9bb4backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "Doors - Noah Kahan" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.