TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Lakers, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,872 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs42c315.77$134 inWon+$182.23,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc2…5a26backed Spurs43c182$78 inWon+$103.745100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Lakers57c175.44$100 inLost-$10027161.3%166 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e17…d199backed Lakers57c175$100 inLost-$99.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd84…23e6backed Spurs43c168$72 inWon+$95.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Spurs46c166$76 inWon+$89.648759.8%52 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Spurs41c164.7$68 inWon+$96.521,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d6c…63efbacked Spurs43c161$69 inWon+$91.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe469…37a2backed Spurs43c157$68 inWon+$89.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb2…d622backed Lakers57c153$87 inLost-$87.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc15…4646backed Lakers57c151$86 inLost-$86.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2b…502bbacked Lakers57c148$84 inLost-$84.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90cb…ae5fbacked Lakers59c118.64$70 inLost-$701233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Spurs43c97$42 inWon+$55.298450%42 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Spurs44c96$42 inWon+$53.769258.7%54 W · 38 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Lakers59c85.86$50 inLost-$50.3615245.4%69 W · 83 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d30…2645backed Spurs44c81$36 inWon+$45.367448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb34…93a5backed Lakers58c77.59$45 inLost-$451060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x152c…3b50backed Lakers54c62$33 inLost-$33.482962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e48…c958backed Lakers54c59$32 inLost-$31.863857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Spurs43c56.44$24 inWon+$32.177441.9%31 W · 43 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5351…a045backed Spurs44c44$19 inWon+$24.642661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x859a…1ccebacked Lakers56c42$24 inLost-$23.522972.4%21 W · 8 L+6.0wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9874…15d7backed Lakers56c39$22 inLost-$21.842536%9 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked Lakers59c34.13$20 inLost-$20.146749.3%33 W · 34 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spurs42c31.82$13 inWon+$18.451,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed Lakers57c31$18 inLost-$17.676048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8380…1866backed Lakers54c28$15 inLost-$15.124047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb780…e7a2backed Lakers56c24$13 inLost-$13.443256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf683…f2dfbacked Lakers56c24$13 inLost-$13.443056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0068…d7b0backed Lakers57c24$14 inLost-$13.683234.4%11 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-34.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe5b1…042fbacked Lakers56c24$13 inLost-$13.443650%18 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14c2…6070backed Lakers56c24$13 inLost-$13.443764.9%24 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Lakers57c23$13 inLost-$13.113964.1%25 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+24.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5253…b898backed Lakers57c22$13 inLost-$12.543441.2%14 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f3e…f77fbacked Lakers59c20.34$12 inLost-$121361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d49…c438backed Lakers56c18$10 inLost-$10.082832.1%9 W · 19 L-6.0wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-42.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.