NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b9abbc7b698e11de3f6f930e25887fc6633443fe693b6af1f1908ce41e54c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Lakers, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs | 40c | 378.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.42 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…ea19backed Lakers | 61c | 157.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Spurs | 42c | 131$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Spurs | 40c | 129$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Spurs | 40c | 127$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Lakers | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spurs | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Spurs | 39c | 88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Lakers | 60c | 86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -9.8wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Spurs | 42c | 81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Lakers | 59c | 78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Spurs | 42c | 77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Spurs | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Spurs | 48c | 72.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Spurs | 39c | 68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Spurs | 42c | 68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Spurs | 39c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Lakers | 60c | 63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Spurs | 39c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Spurs | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Lakers | 59c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Spurs | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Spurs | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Lakers | 58c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Lakers | 61c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Lakers | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Lakers | 58c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Spurs | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Lakers | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Lakers | 59c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Lakers | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Spurs | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Lakers | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Lakers | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Lakers | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Spurs | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Lakers | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Lakers | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spurs | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Lakers | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Lakers | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Lakers | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Lakers | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Spurs | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Spurs | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Lakers | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Spurs | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Lakers | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Lakers | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Lakers | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Lakers | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Spurs | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Spurs | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Lakers | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Lakers | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Lakers | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Lakers | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Lakers | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Lakers | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Lakers | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Lakers | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Lakers | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Lakers | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Lakers | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. LakersSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points Over 20.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.