NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf24384ac10188cde9280661711a5c14fb7ac3b6f606b448809b889afccab55be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Lakers, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Spurs | 47c | 1,133$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.74 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Lakers | 53c | 944.38$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.52 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Spurs | 47c | 605.43$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.88 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Lakers | 53c | 600.08$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.96 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers | 50c | 229.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Spurs | 48c | 156$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Spurs | 48c | 133$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Spurs | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Spurs | 49c | 94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked Spurs | 50c | 89.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Spurs | 52c | 89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Spurs | 48c | 89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Spurs | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Spurs | 48c | 74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Lakers | 53c | 70.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Spurs | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Spurs | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Lakers | 51c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Spurs | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Spurs | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Spurs | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Spurs | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Spurs | 48c | 51.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Lakers | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Spurs | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Lakers | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Spurs | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Lakers | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Spurs | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Lakers | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Spurs | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Spurs | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Spurs | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Lakers | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Lakers | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Lakers | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Lakers | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Spurs | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Lakers | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Lakers | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Spurs | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Lakers | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Lakers | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Lakers | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Lakers | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Lakers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Lakers | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -9.8wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Lakers | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Lakers | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Lakers | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Spurs | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Lakers | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Lakers | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Spurs | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Spurs | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Lakers | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Lakers | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Spurs | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Lakers | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Lakers | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. LakersSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points Over 20.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.