TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 240.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,118 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe405…bf91backed Under51c28,665$14,619 inLost-$14,619.348448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over49c20,088$9,843 inWon+$10,244.752,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x869b…c625backed Over51c14,217$7,251 inWon+$6,966.544961.2%30 W · 19 L+6.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+33.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Under1c7,529$75 inLost-$75.2929810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under49c5,129$2,513 inLost-$2,513.1536351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Over54c3,704$2,000 inWon+$1,703.712555.2%69 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Over53c3,000$1,590 inWon+$1,41022053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c2,059$987 inLost-$987.099,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Under48c1,930$926 inLost-$926.420542.9%88 W · 117 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under42c1,630$688 inLost-$688.38,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under48c1,226$585 inLost-$585.032,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Under47c1,060$498 inLost-$498.1235651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over52c1,040$541 inWon+$499.218345.4%83 W · 100 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over52c609$317 inWon+$292.326,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe595…4135backed Under46c434.78$200 inLost-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under48c425$204 inLost-$20461740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Over54c370.37$200 inWon+$170.3717856.2%100 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over55c260$143 inWon+$1171,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Under51c212.71$108 inLost-$108.4828856.9%164 W · 124 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x623c…dde0backed Under49c200$98 inLost-$987149.3%35 W · 36 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36ce…daddbacked Under50c200$100 inLost-$1006154.1%33 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over50c199.61$100 inWon+$99.611,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over52c195$101 inWon+$93.678652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1be0…dc27backed Under49c174.76$86 inLost-$85.6315853.8%85 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Under48c166.67$80 inLost-$8016346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Under45c160$72 inLost-$724841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Under49c102.04$50 inLost-$508645.3%39 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under45c100$45 inLost-$4580744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under12c92.53$11 inLost-$10.991,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Under46c70$32 inLost-$32.23540%14 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Under49c40.82$20 inLost-$2012159.5%72 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3820…b5afbacked Under51c39.22$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8901…e16bbacked Over55c30$17 inWon+$13.54337.2%16 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd80…7503backed Over56c23.57$13 inWon+$10.372454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Under49c23.49$12 inLost-$11.5160346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Over50c20$10 inWon+$1062450%312 W · 312 L-2.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Under55c20$11 inLost-$1124955%137 W · 112 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.