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Middle East · resolved market

U.S. agrees to give Saudi Arabia security guarantee by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$277,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes29c13,942$4,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,009.6637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No77c12,948$9,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,974.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes11c12,200$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.9342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes17c11,382$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.0148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22aa…0caebacked No72c5,721$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.31513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked No68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6002075%15 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes27c4,668$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.414445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed Yes12c4,256$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes26c4,245$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.853834.2%13 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3208…6bedbacked No62c3,938$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes29c3,208$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.9938237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,146$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.41,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes22c2,881$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5c…5226backed Yes38c2,657$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac49…67c4backed No76c2,648$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes9c2,508$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.387448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.7wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+156.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7086…38e5backed Yes4c2,475$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked No61c2,094$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.243253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd7f…4500backed No72c1,782$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8662…0731backed No67c1,710$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5004…8601backed No69c1,660$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.36580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes26c1,635$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.0117839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9099backed Yes3c1,579$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.03150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes27c1,500$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.013534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes22c1,497$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3813342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes21c1,402$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.585616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e9c…0e0fbacked No62c1,368$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes27c1,362$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.540939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes2c1,300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes38c1,275$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.28143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes24c1,129$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.7714147.5%67 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes28c1,122$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.632035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…61fdbacked Yes45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No75c1,089$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.484035%14 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2dfd…6a46backed No60c1,061$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes15c1,035$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5247334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes33c1,022$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.597817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…74c8backed No58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes27c1,000$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.59616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e82…17c7backed No64c984.94$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.73366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x378a…258dbacked No80c977.66$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8920…bdb2backed No76c880$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.24161%25 W · 16 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+261.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes32c879.99$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27915331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a0f…601abacked Yes2c850.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x646b…5c3dbacked No80c838.43$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa96a…1405backed No71c800$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc314…fbdcbacked Yes3c759.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes2c731.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.781216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-62.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bee…aa9ebacked Yes41c698.89$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c694.76$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6777636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes30c691.81$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1531649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9038…b34fbacked Yes35c636.05$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91b0…4da1backed No65c619.45$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes35c600$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21122333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes15c600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907640.8%31 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No65c596.52$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.0116651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab7e…2a96backed No61c584.1$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes17c574$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0210045%45 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes11c567.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-69.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa16f…5f84backed No60c557.06$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.231942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4a…9589backed No74c546.06$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+118.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes16c517.31$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4612830.5%39 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No70c510$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.53148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes40c507.56$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.429353.8%50 W · 43 L+12.3wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+34.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15020749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes21c499.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b17…5246backed No66c458.59$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.59862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes33c454.61$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.993351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No73c449.1$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.565253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a08…7ff5backed Yes33c445.19$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b50…e262backed Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf4…00fbbacked Yes5c430.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No72c418.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.642050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No75c404.98$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.153630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes19c403.52$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7731719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1769955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8330…a248backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6115…97ddbacked No77c400$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked No72c367.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.062860.7%17 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No70c359.01$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.333933.3%13 W · 26 L-7.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-62.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes32c340$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.172748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9836…7101backed No64c335.64$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x007f…e3adbacked No72c318$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes37c300.01$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3317414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…710cbacked No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9048630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aea…ee37backed No73c300$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.14666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c04…7031backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…c00cbacked No62c283.57$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.851050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7968…d714backed Yes37c266.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes20c265.2$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5410244.1%45 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes24c254.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes13c250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.519639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed No60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…e564backed No78c242.12$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes25c230.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.121338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed No59c200.5$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.