NBA · resolved market
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd699b8be7d72f27ff9c6dec07384eef04ed49ddfbe2c5189035253bcebe8108
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked No | 46c | 3,941$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,017$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,500$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.66 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes | 56c | 1,333$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.68 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +82%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 56c | 1,333$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.6 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 1,260$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.01 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 44c | 1,142$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.61 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed No | 57c | 992.02$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.57 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4197…24bfbacked No | 66c | 568.12$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 52c | 516.09$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.15 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 49c | 460.55$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 53c | 370$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 40c | 364.8$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 50c | 353.94$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 58c | 287.49$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.66 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 222.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Yes | 46c | 219.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 209 | 65.6%137 W · 72 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 213.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3604…bd45backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…77dcbacked Yes | 43c | 189.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8408backed No | 58c | 170.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…a472backed Yes | 54c | 161.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 136$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…6edebacked Yes | 56c | 132.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…88e8backed Yes | 44c | 113.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4555…220cbacked Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…d068backed No | 48c | 103.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 56c | 103.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230d…fc51backed Yes | 60c | 99.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…de8dbacked Yes | 46c | 79.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 66c | 75.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 26c | 67.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +6.3wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 77c | 66.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked No | 61c | 57.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.31per pick | 52cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 32c | 48.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 382 | 39.5%151 W · 231 L | +35.9wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 35c | 43.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…e8b6backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…5629backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked Yes | 53c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdce…97aebacked Yes | 54c | 37.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 35.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…6372backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 29.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…d036backed Yes | 56c | 26.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…fb01backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked No | 55c | 21.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ba…d4fbbacked No | 61c | 19.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Devin Vassell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?Yes won
- Will James Harden win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Jason Tatum win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Julius Randle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Mikal Bridges win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.