TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb634…a738

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: MLB, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 54 out of 100; worst UFC at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick60cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
UFC — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Farés Ziam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Jack Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.3
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Quillan Salkilld · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+25%+$37.5
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Rafa Garcia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52.48
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Montel Jackson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.92
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Jamey-Lyn Horth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.93
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Azamat Murzakanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.53
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Josh Hokit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$42.03
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Dominick Reyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$36.75
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Randy Brown · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.85
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Chris Duncan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.11
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Jose Delano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$11.02
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Maycee Barber · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Michael Page · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.76
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Caio Borralho · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+47.1%+$31.89
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Geoff Neal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$105
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Njokuani · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$35
UFC Fight Night: Ode' Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Osbourne · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$35
All 18 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.67
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+78.8%+$46.04
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Metsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+82.4%+$48.1
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigersbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$47.77
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.54
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$23.66
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Metsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$87
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$20.81
All 8 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.1
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)backed Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$53.59
Maple Leafs vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 4 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mexican Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Patrick Kypsonbacked Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+51.5%+$18.03
Chile Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tomas Barriosbacked Tabilo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+61.3%+$18.39
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mark Williams: Points O/U 1.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.