Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ecde477dd9b215bd4cd754cce39fa0ba3b57cdf49c310a26e9b45f4cbd8d2ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b48…9e7abacked Yes | 15c | 7,000$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,913$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c6…24cfbacked No | 80c | 3,085$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8074…5c76backed Yes | 21c | 2,844$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 30c | 2,780$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.77 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 76c | 2,194$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…4616backed Yes | 28c | 1,767$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.2 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 67c | 1,473$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.19 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 78c | 1,404$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.31 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed No | 71c | 1,240$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.41 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed No | 69c | 1,012$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.33 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 866.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 73c | 799.99$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed Yes | 16c | 736.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa0…3308backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 654.88$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed Yes | 19c | 651.09$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…5c01backed Yes | 33c | 609.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db5…de26backed Yes | 9c | 555.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 25c | 540.03$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3070backed Yes | 38c | 476.46$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 21c | 453.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 429.61$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked Yes | 26c | 402.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…8bccbacked Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…5f4cbacked No | 63c | 373.73$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…a0b9backed Yes | 26c | 347.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…0ba4backed Yes | 24c | 325.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 78c | 303.58$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked No | 68c | 300.79$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +61%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 77c | 299.98$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…7633backed Yes | 34c | 296.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Yes | 24c | 286$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Yes | 26c | 285.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 19c | 281.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…1ef4backed Yes | 38c | 272$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…1b26backed Yes | 14c | 258.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…217ebacked Yes | 33c | 250$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…7123backed Yes | 10c | 249.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 30cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…0379backed Yes | 13c | 246$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +80%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c03…b37abacked No | 76c | 240$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…3762backed No | 69c | 230.87$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd5…8f01backed Yes | 18c | 230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6f…2b39backed Yes | 22c | 227.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b14…5d9cbacked Yes | 26c | 210$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…d94abacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked No | 65c | 197.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 28c | 177.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 28c | 175.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -52%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed No | 60c | 152.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 67c | 150.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 69c | 145.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f3…33f1backed Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 16c | 135.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 125.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…acb1backed Yes | 14c | 124.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 121.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 21c | 95.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…f32bbacked Yes | 17c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 21c | 79.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 18c | 74.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked No | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 75c | 59.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c93…21c2backed Yes | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -84%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…c26fbacked No | 79c | 57.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ad…84b7backed Yes | 37c | 53.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…0aa8backed Yes | 35c | 42.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 41.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d3…8338backed Yes | 40c | 39.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 70c | 31.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…f411backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed No | 77c | 25.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale?this page
- Over $10M committed to the Foresee public sale?No won
- Over $200K committed to the Foresee public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the Foresee public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Foresee public sale?No won
- Over $500K committed to the Foresee public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Foresee public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.