NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0ab45ab579fcbb29addffda12fbe7d79815aca2391ad9c616abb4a4b36d482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Rockets, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Lakers | 42c | 1,377$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.94 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b36…56cebacked Rockets | 12c | 1,131$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rockets | 60c | 700$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Rockets | 56c | 689.08$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…5095backed Rockets | 39c | 420.43$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.66 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Lakers | 75c | 338.91$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 313 | 45.7%143 W · 170 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Rockets | 27c | 310$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Rockets | 56c | 309.53$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.78 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Rockets | 52c | 295.88$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.84 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Lakers | 50c | 292.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.01 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked Rockets | 5c | 221.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Lakers | 73c | 178.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Lakers | 60c | 161.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Lakers | 79c | 151.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…1378backed Rockets | 70c | 140.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Lakers | 53c | 127.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Lakers | 73c | 126.91$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Rockets | 62c | 126.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Rockets | 25c | 123.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Lakers | 66c | 118.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lakers | 63c | 112.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Lakers | 47c | 109.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Rockets | 26c | 107.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Lakers | 38c | 100.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Lakers | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…f538backed Lakers | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Lakers | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Lakers | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Rockets | 12c | 92.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Rockets | 67c | 85.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…4271backed Lakers | 34c | 85.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Lakers | 36c | 60.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked Lakers | 40c | 59.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Rockets | 60c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…e696backed Lakers | 34c | 56.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Lakers | 36c | 50.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Lakers | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Lakers | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Lakers | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…666abacked Lakers | 39c | 49.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…f5a1backed Rockets | 23c | 46.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rockets | 61c | 45.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d8…99f0backed Rockets | 46c | 42.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Rockets | 61c | 41.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Rockets | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf2…8bf0backed Rockets | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Rockets | 44c | 33.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked Lakers | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Lakers | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…fc2abacked Lakers | 38c | 30.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Lakers | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…5ea9backed Rockets | 63c | 21.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Lakers | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Rockets | 72c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Lakers won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. LakersLakers won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 100.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 101.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 205.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 209.5Under won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.