NBA · resolved market
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178742b6f262cbc0d7afa158856ef0a08f3abda6e3e804f292cdedee4bcfffe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc2…eaefbacked No | 59c | 1,700$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.95 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…c790backed No | 61c | 499.95$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 147 | 31.3%46 W · 101 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 60c | 407.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…5656backed Yes | 49c | 399.69$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.85 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -10.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 51c | 378.53$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.48 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc574…b9dabacked Yes | 41c | 295.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.91 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 39c | 291.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes | 41c | 289.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Yes | 41c | 176.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 60c | 175.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3076…520ebacked Yes | 41c | 162.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…824abacked Yes | 41c | 140.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 40c | 120.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed No | 63c | 119.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 40c | 108.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 45c | 107.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Yes | 40c | 103.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 62c | 79.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 55c | 78.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3c…5727backed Yes | 38c | 76.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…a1f1backed Yes | 39c | 67.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Yes | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…0e2fbacked Yes | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…fd45backed Yes | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1ee1backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 63c | 41.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed Yes | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 40c | 35.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…a724backed Yes | 36c | 30.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…fd46backed Yes | 38c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 52c | 25.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 62c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Lakers won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. LakersLakers won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 100.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 101.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 205.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 209.5Under won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.