TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Luke Kennard: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,301 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf7…8f79backed No54c282.52$153 inLost-$152.521,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No53c256.93$136 inLost-$136.245,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes50c229.34$115 inWon+$114.1542348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed Yes46c210.35$97 inWon+$113.596836.8%25 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No50c200$100 inLost-$10056050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…42a8backed No57c153.82$88 inLost-$87.681618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-55.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Yes46c137.85$63 inWon+$74.4420154.2%109 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes51c133.22$68 inWon+$65.2810636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9186…491cbacked Yes46c105.17$48 inWon+$56.79560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed No49c103.04$50 inLost-$50.4913751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed No55c94.46$52 inLost-$51.5620247.5%96 W · 106 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb496…fd45backed Yes47c82.94$39 inWon+$44.2210135.6%36 W · 65 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No55c74.97$41 inLost-$41.2336749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Yes50c58.2$29 inWon+$29.19944.4%44 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36c…0e2fbacked Yes51c57.2$29 inWon+$28.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed No54c49.99$27 inLost-$26.9941227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fcd…0a9cbacked Yes46c48.38$22 inWon+$26.131060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No50c33.99$17 inLost-$17.1526957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed No53c33.21$18 inLost-$17.6314052.1%73 W · 67 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1969…a09cbacked Yes48c30.28$15 inWon+$15.749658.3%56 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f94…f90dbacked Yes50c29.1$15 inWon+$14.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No48c28.28$13 inLost-$13.4976247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed No54c27.01$15 inLost-$14.5914953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…7436backed Yes44c25$11 inWon+$143246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No53c21.48$11 inLost-$11.3876054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x913f…837abacked No58c18.52$11 inLost-$10.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.