TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gauge Youngof Thiago Moises, Gauge Young
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$946,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,011,932

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $946,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Thiago Moises42c593,959$247,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247,819.651154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Gauge Young58c237,007$137,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,542.9110949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Gauge Young59c121,180$71,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,683.721361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Gauge Young58c80,000$46,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,600666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Gauge Young58c62,595$36,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,092.0714558.6%85 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Gauge Young58c48,696$28,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,249.153040%12 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Gauge Young59c41,423$24,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,983.452755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05c4…78c6backed Thiago Moises0c31,626$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Gauge Young58c25,596$14,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,744.4513452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Thiago Moises35c13,869$4,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,875.78434.5%29 W · 55 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Thiago Moises37c12,909$4,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,766.4915939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Gauge Young59c12,534$7,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,139.0711657.8%67 W · 49 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Gauge Young58c11,700$6,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9143545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Thiago Moises40c10,543$4,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,250.6428849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16a…33a1backed Thiago Moises0c9,722$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Gauge Young67c8,516$5,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.3620954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Gauge Young58c7,000$4,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9103636.1%13 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Gauge Young58c6,803$3,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,840.5614551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Thiago Moises0c6,698$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.315459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Gauge Young58c6,000$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52012052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Gauge Young59c5,352$3,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,213.278754%47 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Gauge Young58c5,096$2,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,140.4742054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Thiago Moises41c4,614$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.664847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Thiago Moises45c4,524$2,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,033.598940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Gauge Young60c4,067$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.679164.8%59 W · 32 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Gauge Young60c3,709$2,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed2…4671backed Gauge Young55c3,576$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.225954.2%32 W · 27 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Gauge Young67c3,368$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.1753956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Thiago Moises44c3,287$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.9914237.3%53 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed Gauge Young56c2,880$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.66875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Thiago Moises41c2,600$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06620233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Gauge Young72c2,491$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.54850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc149…dc81backed Gauge Young59c2,463$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.781464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7dbc…d4adbacked Thiago Moises41c2,439$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.974050%20 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+37.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5e…3a87backed Thiago Moises2c2,353$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.062142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ee7…6760backed Thiago Moises43c2,310$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.117343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Thiago Moises60c2,222$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.23458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Gauge Young58c2,218$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.417158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Thiago Moises40c2,121$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.4829133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1918…20d1backed Thiago Moises42c2,102$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.982650%13 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Gauge Young58c2,005$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.225156.9%29 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Gauge Young58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8406246.8%29 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Gauge Young58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401650%8 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Thiago Moises16c1,874$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.84368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Gauge Young59c1,756$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.854327.9%12 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x438a…62e5backed Gauge Young59c1,732$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Thiago Moises36c1,575$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.9935848.3%173 W · 185 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Gauge Young47c1,552$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.516156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Gauge Young62c1,493$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.0637754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Thiago Moises38c1,490$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.7320139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Thiago Moises36c1,229$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.4110546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7008…d2f5backed Thiago Moises12c1,223$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.746342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Gauge Young60c1,220$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4882227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x874f…a13dbacked Gauge Young48c1,216$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.81040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x231a…a82fbacked Gauge Young59c1,170$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.91450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Thiago Moises42c1,158$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.463246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa08f…2a7abacked Thiago Moises61c1,107$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-46.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Gauge Young56c1,032$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.0615540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Gauge Young59c999.99$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41036745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Gauge Young58c999.55$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.813647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Gauge Young60c989.66$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3967150.7%36 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Gauge Young59c985.52$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.0622661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Gauge Young41c978.63$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.3916746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Thiago Moises42c935.13$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.7615552.3%81 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Gauge Young53c916.13$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.114132.6%46 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2256…0386backed Thiago Moises44c904.9$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.167160.6%43 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Gauge Young57c849.07$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.591442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc1…8a4cbacked Gauge Young59c826.61$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.91837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Thiago Moises47c792.74$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.692343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6733…acb9backed Gauge Young60c783.75$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.621346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Thiago Moises3c776.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x684d…e35bbacked Thiago Moises18c741.35$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Gauge Young53c740.87$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.628851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Thiago Moises41c706.89$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.822254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…c848backed Thiago Moises42c690.12$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.8560%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Gauge Young59c682.78$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.944344.2%19 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb73…1e52backed Gauge Young51c651.93$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.729452.1%49 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Thiago Moises46c650.91$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.52744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Thiago Moises61c644.14$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.6212557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc119…0162backed Thiago Moises41c632.47$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Gauge Young53c621.41$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.0611761.5%72 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Thiago Moises42c600.04$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.527448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fcb…f91abacked Gauge Young60c577.47$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.993246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Thiago Moises42c577.25$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.2711364.6%73 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Thiago Moises42c545.34$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0452252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Thiago Moises43c507.08$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.6333132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb5b8…4935backed Thiago Moises8c497.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Gauge Young59c495.97$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.3516158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Gauge Young60c488$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.24946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Thiago Moises36c480.8$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.099949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Gauge Young40c479.59$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.7510746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7358…1d32backed Thiago Moises50c476.31$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.157647.4%36 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Gauge Young55c472.42$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.592948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc693…72dbbacked Gauge Young48c465.07$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+174%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Thiago Moises43c448.76$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8115641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2258…0eecbacked Gauge Young60c444.08$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.632254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Thiago Moises41c444$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.046732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Gauge Young59c438.93$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9636655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Thiago Moises49c432.84$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.2815444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Thiago Moises45c427.75$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4410533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.