UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6479a1182dd7ac76c27a06e680bb89b97b0d23d07d6f74d624a9d183667aceff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gauge Youngof Thiago Moises, Gauge Young
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $946,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,011,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $946,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Thiago Moises | 42c | 593,959$247,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247,819.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Gauge Young | 58c | 237,007$137,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,542.91 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Gauge Young | 59c | 121,180$71,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,683.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Gauge Young | 58c | 80,000$46,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,600 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Gauge Young | 58c | 62,595$36,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,092.07 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Gauge Young | 58c | 48,696$28,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,249.15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Gauge Young | 59c | 41,423$24,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,983.45 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c4…78c6backed Thiago Moises | 0c | 31,626$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Gauge Young | 58c | 25,596$14,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,744.45 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Thiago Moises | 35c | 13,869$4,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,875.7 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Thiago Moises | 37c | 12,909$4,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,766.49 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Gauge Young | 59c | 12,534$7,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,139.07 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Gauge Young | 58c | 11,700$6,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,914 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Thiago Moises | 40c | 10,543$4,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250.64 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed Thiago Moises | 0c | 9,722$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Gauge Young | 67c | 8,516$5,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.36 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Gauge Young | 58c | 7,000$4,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Gauge Young | 58c | 6,803$3,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.56 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Thiago Moises | 0c | 6,698$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Gauge Young | 58c | 6,000$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Gauge Young | 59c | 5,352$3,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.27 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gauge Young | 58c | 5,096$2,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,140.47 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Thiago Moises | 41c | 4,614$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.66 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Thiago Moises | 45c | 4,524$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.59 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Gauge Young | 60c | 4,067$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.67 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Gauge Young | 60c | 3,709$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Gauge Young | 55c | 3,576$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.22 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Gauge Young | 67c | 3,368$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.17 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Thiago Moises | 44c | 3,287$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.99 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…e2e6backed Gauge Young | 56c | 2,880$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Thiago Moises | 41c | 2,600$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…fe85backed Gauge Young | 72c | 2,491$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…dc81backed Gauge Young | 59c | 2,463$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Thiago Moises | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.97 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5e…3a87backed Thiago Moises | 2c | 2,353$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…6760backed Thiago Moises | 43c | 2,310$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.11 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Thiago Moises | 60c | 2,222$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Gauge Young | 58c | 2,218$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.4 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Thiago Moises | 40c | 2,121$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.48 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…20d1backed Thiago Moises | 42c | 2,102$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Gauge Young | 58c | 2,005$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.22 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Gauge Young | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Gauge Young | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Thiago Moises | 16c | 1,874$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Gauge Young | 59c | 1,756$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.85 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…62e5backed Gauge Young | 59c | 1,732$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Thiago Moises | 36c | 1,575$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.99 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Gauge Young | 47c | 1,552$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.5 | 161 | 56.5%91 W · 70 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Gauge Young | 62c | 1,493$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.06 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Thiago Moises | 38c | 1,490$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.73 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Thiago Moises | 36c | 1,229$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.41 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…d2f5backed Thiago Moises | 12c | 1,223$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked Gauge Young | 60c | 1,220$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…a13dbacked Gauge Young | 48c | 1,216$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…a82fbacked Gauge Young | 59c | 1,170$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Thiago Moises | 42c | 1,158$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.46 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08f…2a7abacked Thiago Moises | 61c | 1,107$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Gauge Young | 56c | 1,032$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.06 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Gauge Young | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Gauge Young | 58c | 999.55$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.81 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Gauge Young | 60c | 989.66$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Gauge Young | 59c | 985.52$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.06 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Gauge Young | 41c | 978.63$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.39 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Thiago Moises | 42c | 935.13$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.76 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Gauge Young | 53c | 916.13$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.1 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…0386backed Thiago Moises | 44c | 904.9$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.16 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Gauge Young | 57c | 849.07$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc1…8a4cbacked Gauge Young | 59c | 826.61$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Thiago Moises | 47c | 792.74$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Gauge Young | 60c | 783.75$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Thiago Moises | 3c | 776.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…e35bbacked Thiago Moises | 18c | 741.35$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Gauge Young | 53c | 740.87$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.62 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Thiago Moises | 41c | 706.89$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…c848backed Thiago Moises | 42c | 690.12$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Gauge Young | 59c | 682.78$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.94 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb73…1e52backed Gauge Young | 51c | 651.93$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.72 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Thiago Moises | 46c | 650.91$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Thiago Moises | 61c | 644.14$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.62 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…0162backed Thiago Moises | 41c | 632.47$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Gauge Young | 53c | 621.41$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.06 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Thiago Moises | 42c | 600.04$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…f91abacked Gauge Young | 60c | 577.47$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Thiago Moises | 42c | 577.25$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.27 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Thiago Moises | 42c | 545.34$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.04 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Thiago Moises | 43c | 507.08$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.63 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…4935backed Thiago Moises | 8c | 497.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Gauge Young | 59c | 495.97$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.35 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Gauge Young | 60c | 488$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…3d49backed Thiago Moises | 36c | 480.8$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.09 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1507…e175backed Gauge Young | 40c | 479.59$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.75 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…1d32backed Thiago Moises | 50c | 476.31$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Gauge Young | 55c | 472.42$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.59 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc693…72dbbacked Gauge Young | 48c | 465.07$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +174%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Thiago Moises | 43c | 448.76$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…0eecbacked Gauge Young | 60c | 444.08$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Thiago Moises | 41c | 444$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Gauge Young | 59c | 438.93$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Thiago Moises | 49c | 432.84$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.28 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Thiago Moises | 45c | 427.75$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.