NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1e9fc84f6a351268caebb167dfa9f81329b8200538b8f95272eb8a6c44a418

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Knicksof Knicks, Spurs
Resolved: Dec 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $84,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $84,247

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,910 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa9e6…025bbacked Spurs	55c	31,987$17,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,500	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Knicks	46c	20,000$9,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,799.98	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Knicks	46c	19,966$9,242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,723.69	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Spurs	54c	6,976$3,767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,767.28	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs	54c	6,745$3,612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,611.77	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7973…34d4backed Knicks	47c	4,047$1,902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,144.81	54	37%20 W · 34 L	-6.4wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1375…4c69backed Spurs	54c	3,104$1,676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,676	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	-9.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks	44c	3,051$1,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,702.88	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98be…5794backed Knicks	47c	2,128$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,127.66	38	78.9%30 W · 8 L	+13.2wins	+0.35per pick	44cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	73+0.21 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Knicks	46c	1,261$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$681.17	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafdc…c2a2backed Knicks	47c	1,202$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$637.13	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xffb2…3bb5backed Spurs	56c	982.46$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6da…7e3ebacked Spurs	54c	925.93$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-11.2wins	-0.23per pick	55cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Knicks	46c	893.1$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.5	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Spurs	51c	757.78$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.84	162	43.8%71 W · 91 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Knicks	47c	635.98$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.07	211	52.6%111 W · 100 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Knicks	47c	531.91$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.91	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Knicks	47c	527.11$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276.96	315	51.7%163 W · 152 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Knicks	52c	526.05$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.23	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+27%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Spurs	65c	500$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	126	55.6%70 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Spurs	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Spurs	10c	400$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	175	27.4%48 W · 127 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Spurs	52c	400$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Spurs	48c	399.99$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67c3…5cc8backed Spurs	54c	368.82$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	111	55%61 W · 50 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Spurs	54c	324.07$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	181	40.3%73 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x588b…c2bdbacked Spurs	53c	300$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks	45c	297.45$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.6	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Knicks	47c	286.35$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.35	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Knicks	45c	240.83$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.54	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked Spurs	54c	222.22$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	182	40.7%74 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Knicks	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a7…8db6backed Spurs	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Knicks	44c	200$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc7…4fafbacked Knicks	46c	200$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Spurs	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	288	56.9%164 W · 124 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Spurs	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c24…8c06backed Spurs	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Spurs	54c	166.2$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.75	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22eb…7d8dbacked Spurs	16c	150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks	49c	136.33$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.03	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1056…3c9dbacked Knicks	45c	133.34$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.34	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	+5.7wins	+0.14per pick	33cpaid	+112.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x07ec…ba9fbacked Spurs	54c	120.37$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.16per pick	43cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Spurs	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	628	48.7%306 W · 322 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac70…d0e7backed Spurs	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.14per pick	34cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Knicks	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8160…7963backed Knicks	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f4…4763backed Spurs	62c	97.13$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.9	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-16%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5256…24a5backed Spurs	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Spurs	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	112	51.8%58 W · 54 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Spurs	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	102	53.9%55 W · 47 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x897d…90c9backed Spurs	54c	87.04$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	165	59.4%98 W · 67 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f79…c16cbacked Spurs	53c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a5…f476backed Knicks	47c	73$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.69	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	51cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Knicks	46c	69.79$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.86	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x819b…c28abacked Knicks	47c	63.39$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.39	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+3.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+106.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Spurs	50c	63.28$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.47	129	47.3%61 W · 68 L	+12.3wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Spurs	54c	62.96$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	102	61.8%63 W · 39 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Spurs	55c	61.62$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.7	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d4…44b3backed Spurs	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12af…6124backed Spurs	54c	55.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a7…add9backed Spurs	54c	55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Knicks	47c	53.72$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.69	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b66…304cbacked Knicks	47c	53.38$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.29	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Spurs	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	535	39.6%212 W · 323 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc297…b0d2backed Spurs	54c	49.07$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	72	54.2%39 W · 33 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Spurs	52c	45.57$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.69	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Knicks	47c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.2	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63fb…9c89backed Knicks	48c	38.65$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.95	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Spurs	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25a4…ae1abacked Spurs	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Spurs	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	284	54.6%155 W · 129 L	-17.9wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Spurs	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	51%50 W · 48 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Spurs	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8e…1ef0backed Spurs	72c	36.07$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.97	99	54.5%54 W · 45 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x227c…f0cbbacked Spurs	54c	35.83$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.35	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-22%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9786…b15cbacked Spurs	51c	35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	76	52.6%40 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Spurs	54c	31.41$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	154	48.7%75 W · 79 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…f77fbacked Knicks	46c	30.43$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.43	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Knicks	42c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.47	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Knicks	45c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.85	197	56.3%111 W · 86 L	+8.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Knicks	47c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.19	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe24b…5142backed Spurs	54c	22.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x260a…dbf6backed Spurs	59c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Spurs	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	380	48.7%185 W · 195 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event