TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Libertyof Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$159,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,169 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27f7…44b0backed New York Liberty44c20,119$8,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,183.2636154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Liberty60c13,393$8,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,354.6699548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Lynx55c9,772$5,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,419.240550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb1…96e1backed Minnesota Lynx14c9,321$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick34cpaid+49.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Lynx55c5,897$3,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.5583748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Lynx28c5,308$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.0378548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked New York Liberty47c4,398$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,315.894854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Minnesota Lynx1c4,100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.444915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Minnesota Lynx0c4,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcb51…d2f5backed Minnesota Lynx52c3,926$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Minnesota Lynx53c3,600$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9086549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Minnesota Lynx49c3,472$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.3336750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Minnesota Lynx1c3,467$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.595020%10 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Liberty71c3,311$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.221,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Lynx56c3,086$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.1592248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Minnesota Lynx57c2,560$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4593444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Minnesota Lynx27c2,439$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.1819428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed New York Liberty45c2,246$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.537236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty61c2,221$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.271,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed New York Liberty45c2,199$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.616956.5%39 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Minnesota Lynx54c2,050$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.5829654.4%161 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9217…ce22backed Minnesota Lynx49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked New York Liberty51c1,972$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.7285158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Minnesota Lynx14c1,932$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.947520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf9f…998bbacked Minnesota Lynx47c1,931$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed New York Liberty67c1,885$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.9823049.6%114 W · 116 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfeab…9cd0backed New York Liberty50c1,800$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695b…050abacked New York Liberty48c1,712$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Minnesota Lynx54c1,687$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.543360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed New York Liberty46c1,607$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.663441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed New York Liberty48c1,584$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.831172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+43.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed New York Liberty44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9414060%84 W · 56 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Minnesota Lynx35c1,476$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.712234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Minnesota Lynx55c1,451$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.3219458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0c4…989abacked New York Liberty71c1,263$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.62060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Minnesota Lynx20c1,200$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.6113844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed New York Liberty48c1,160$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.4831043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked New York Liberty65c1,149$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.182070%14 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Lynx56c1,080$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.7523245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bcf…c767backed Minnesota Lynx57c1,059$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.699140.7%37 W · 54 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed New York Liberty44c1,045$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.74837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Minnesota Lynx38c1,020$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.6710340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed New York Liberty45c956.26$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.945156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1c…82c6backed New York Liberty53c899.98$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Minnesota Lynx10c884.5$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.456467.2%43 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64d0…5fc2backed New York Liberty66c849.45$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.912040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked New York Liberty41c810.58$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.8610445.2%47 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed New York Liberty40c700$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42011250%56 W · 56 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Minnesota Lynx56c699.32$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.6232049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Minnesota Lynx56c649$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.449445.7%43 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Minnesota Lynx42c584.77$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.557259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked New York Liberty59c583.28$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.465642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Minnesota Lynx37c579.77$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.027357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx56c571.47$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.8989349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8339…caa9backed Minnesota Lynx57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed New York Liberty65c516.33$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.6917656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed New York Liberty44c513.37$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.57746.8%36 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked New York Liberty46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Minnesota Lynx54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9912840.6%52 W · 76 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Minnesota Lynx56c475$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2667450%37 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Minnesota Lynx31c451.03$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.230649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1378…dbd2backed Minnesota Lynx52c419$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.231936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-30.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd654…45c2backed Minnesota Lynx57c410$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.74060%24 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked New York Liberty58c407.6$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.029255.4%51 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc50…f8debacked Minnesota Lynx56c399.2$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.552944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Minnesota Lynx26c380.17$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5531448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f4…936bbacked Minnesota Lynx55c361.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Minnesota Lynx33c319.2$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5536454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed New York Liberty55c311.41$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.713358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Minnesota Lynx55c298.05$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4238645.9%177 W · 209 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Minnesota Lynx34c295.75$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8311351.3%58 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Lynx56c277.77$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.5512751.2%65 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8d…44b1backed Minnesota Lynx41c271.56$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010237.3%38 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c3…32a1backed Minnesota Lynx56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Minnesota Lynx56c265.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.613265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed New York Liberty43c265.14$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.134967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Lynx44c257.56$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4330347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Minnesota Lynx48c256.26$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0115741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4027…30b9backed Minnesota Lynx22c246.46$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.442339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…bb68backed Minnesota Lynx7c236.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.48395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5231…4907backed New York Liberty44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed New York Liberty60c221.93$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.076643.9%29 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Minnesota Lynx47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Minnesota Lynx28c212.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7518746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed New York Liberty61c203.13$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2361042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Lynx33c201.62$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1534753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Minnesota Lynx53c200$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7223955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Liberty40c186$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.624852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Minnesota Lynx55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21fb…fd64backed Minnesota Lynx57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c5…4692backed New York Liberty43c163.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.95763.2%36 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed New York Liberty45c152.77$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.528746%40 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Liberty68c149.78$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.631847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…84e4backed Minnesota Lynx21c149.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb43e…8200backed Minnesota Lynx57c147.66$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.173938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f7…9385backed Minnesota Lynx47c146.81$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked New York Liberty45c137.53$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6414947.7%71 W · 78 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked New York Liberty60c132.58$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5438744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Minnesota Lynx56c123.67$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2532743.7%143 W · 184 L-23.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Minnesota Lynx57c116.93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.655766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.