Movies · resolved market
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7eab005f1b108fed854a793122fa8eb01755f068cb60ef11978c29f9765ce4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 17c | 3,558$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.36 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 68c | 3,245$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.88 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 69c | 859.03$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.1 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 811.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 9c | 743.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 716.55$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.41 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 6c | 534.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 61c | 508.79$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.11 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc5…52abbacked Yes | 73c | 460.96$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 58c | 451.28$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.68 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 449.94$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.43 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 446.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 10c | 391.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 21c | 385.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 54c | 365.3$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.19 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 320.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 4c | 312.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 56c | 281.41$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 9c | 257.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 250.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 66c | 238.34$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 231.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 230.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 219.55$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 50c | 208$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 44c | 183.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 178$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 36c | 175.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 24c | 174.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 27c | 168$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed Yes | 20c | 155$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 10c | 141.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 138.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 63c | 127.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a12…37cabacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 19c | 115.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 27c | 114$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 51c | 108.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 104.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 48c | 104.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 27c | 96.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 75c | 93.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 45c | 92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed Yes | 50c | 77.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 65.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 35c | 63.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 58.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 56.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…467bbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked Yes | 63c | 48.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 42.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 27c | 41.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed Yes | 69c | 32.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…0f34backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 54c | 25.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 46c | 24.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 20.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…94b4backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…1351backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb173…a859backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 66c | 15.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m?this page
- Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 69m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 77m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m?No won
- Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 65m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.