La Liga · resolved market
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa449cd8346b6deda561828355ae92b88bd47d989859d2d287ce7e42a42b556c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 1,821$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 16c | 1,559$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.21 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 1,401$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 1,115$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 74c | 830$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +248%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked No | 7c | 678.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 8c | 634.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 11c | 591$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 10c | 580.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 3c | 412.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked No | 3c | 374.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 10c | 353.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…bd18backed Yes | 75c | 329.1$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 10c | 310$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 68c | 270.39$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 8c | 265.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 16c | 240$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 10c | 232.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…7545backed No | 8c | 231.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…4776backed No | 6c | 215.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed Yes | 69c | 215.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed No | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…9403backed No | 10c | 209.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…e35bbacked No | 10c | 198.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…6bdcbacked No | 11c | 187.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…4fbebacked No | 12c | 170.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 170.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 12c | 167.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01aa…571dbacked No | 11c | 166.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 162$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f6…7504backed No | 8c | 156.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…7ec6backed No | 10c | 148.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed No | 41c | 142.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 15c | 140.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…515fbacked Yes | 77c | 129.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…fe91backed No | 11c | 129$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 20c | 128$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed No | 12c | 123.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35df…cf97backed No | 10c | 121.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…1279backed No | 10c | 118.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…ef3cbacked No | 9c | 114.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 21c | 104.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a180backed No | 19c | 103.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…2e61backed No | 16c | 94.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…6b9abacked No | 33c | 75.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4045…3307backed Yes | 56c | 75.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked No | 26c | 69.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 79c | 66.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0075…5f10backed No | 30c | 60.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…5e9fbacked No | 28c | 53.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…c646backed Yes | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9669…5e05backed Yes | 52c | 34.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f2…5bb5backed Yes | 75c | 32.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…3561backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 76c | 31.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d7…868bbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9680…60babacked Yes | 78c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea2…106bbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0e…1f21backed Yes | 75c | 23.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…bc58backed Yes | 76c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 76c | 21.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?this page
- Will Abel Ruiz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Alex Baena be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Alexander Sorloth be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Broja Iglesias be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Cristhian Stuani be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Dani Olmo be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Ferran Torres be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Gonzalo Garcia be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Javi Puado be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Lamine Yamal be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Marcus Rashford be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Oihan Sancet be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Raphinha be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Roberto Fernandez be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
- Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.