TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Tempoof Toronto Tempo, Chicago Sky
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$242,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,414 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Toronto Tempo37c11,188$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,048.6413950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Chicago Sky30c9,930$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,975.0336750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky43c9,270$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,949.8499548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Tempo76c7,914$6,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.2520947.4%99 W · 110 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Toronto Tempo70c5,718$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.261145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Chicago Sky59c5,500$3,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2354623.9%11 W · 35 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-48.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Sky29c5,448$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.8350646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky56c5,167$2,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,908.191,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Toronto Tempo38c4,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.994438.6%17 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Chicago Sky54c3,104$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.8423049.6%114 W · 116 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b4e…a24abacked Toronto Tempo64c3,095$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Sky63c3,053$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.5646247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Toronto Tempo36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+67.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Sky34c2,893$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.821,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chicago Sky20c2,890$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.0234726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Toronto Tempo74c2,718$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.115466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ec…0959backed Toronto Tempo72c2,704$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…50febacked Toronto Tempo79c2,520$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.41per pick55cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x96a9…e073backed Toronto Tempo37c2,453$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.592941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Chicago Sky27c2,397$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.4819428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Toronto Tempo49c2,209$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.3455255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86ed…c1e5backed Chicago Sky35c2,097$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Chicago Sky24c2,021$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.1512045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Toronto Tempo74c1,871$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.941861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Chicago Sky63c1,735$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09322748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1491…11d3backed Toronto Tempo70c1,446$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.261675%12 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Tempo67c1,414$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.3585158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Toronto Tempo53c1,400$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.9336454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Chicago Sky27c1,390$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.26746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Chicago Sky3c1,325$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7544915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Chicago Sky24c1,320$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.612030%6 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Sky42c1,302$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.6726247.7%125 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Tempo79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.8210552.4%55 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Toronto Tempo77c1,263$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.813933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Chicago Sky63c1,198$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.565862.1%36 W · 22 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Toronto Tempo64c1,176$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.075156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Tempo55c1,148$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.7626147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Toronto Tempo34c1,139$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.855044%22 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Sky21c1,102$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.337850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Sky50c1,075$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.3289349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x959a…7b64backed Chicago Sky23c1,074$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Chicago Sky22c1,070$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.193534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Toronto Tempo34c1,029$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.414652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Toronto Tempo75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0167…d002backed Toronto Tempo37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6303053.3%16 W · 14 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick32cpaid+68.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Chicago Sky64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb6…8e13backed Chicago Sky33c983.73$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.611435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Sky65c973.05$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.6223245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Chicago Sky43c953.37$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.5719458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Chicago Sky29c952.06$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6938744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803a…1856backed Chicago Sky33c938.48$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.491250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Sky30c894.57$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.1331043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked Toronto Tempo35c853.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.041936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8c…6a99backed Toronto Tempo38c838.13$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+165.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…bb68backed Chicago Sky6c837.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Sky21c799.98$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7850952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Chicago Sky7c726.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Tempo67c711.37$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.1510858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x53cd…11b3backed Chicago Sky30c699.99$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Toronto Tempo75c660.58$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.632951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Toronto Tempo76c654.33$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.046749.3%33 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Toronto Tempo35c651.12$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.4810151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c73…68e7backed Toronto Tempo78c650$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Toronto Tempo77c616.08$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0822967.7%155 W · 74 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Toronto Tempo67c601.49$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.496051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Chicago Sky22c600.42$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.389129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Chicago Sky20c581$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.573528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Chicago Sky65c546.15$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3552958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Toronto Tempo74c545.15$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.7215250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Toronto Tempo79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Chicago Sky64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010249%50 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Tempo80c499.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10010144.6%45 W · 56 L-13.5wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Chicago Sky22c462.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12a2…c60dbacked Toronto Tempo38c453.39$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Toronto Tempo69c446.23$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.45538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Sky29c433.95$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9430347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Chicago Sky28c420$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2510838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Chicago Sky64c418.64$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.934967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Chicago Sky39c417.52$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.176237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6858…7d47backed Toronto Tempo36c410$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.42365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+76.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x229b…331fbacked Chicago Sky23c410$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x293b…15e1backed Toronto Tempo36c410$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Toronto Tempo79c406.25$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.292857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Toronto Tempo62c400$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1533732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0570…465ebacked Chicago Sky64c397.89$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.351338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8397…0dbbbacked Chicago Sky63c397.26$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Tempo76c392.33$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.167647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Toronto Tempo80c375.08$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.025949.2%29 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Sky20c360.04$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2137650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c7…f276backed Toronto Tempo63c344.3$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.39875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba4…69fbbacked Chicago Sky37c334.81$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Toronto Tempo67c323.59$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5818844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Toronto Tempo69c318.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.998061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Toronto Tempo63c317$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1171190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick64cpaid+42.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b2f…cb55backed Toronto Tempo64c316.7$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Toronto Tempo59c303$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.221921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e0a…629dbacked Toronto Tempo63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.051957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed Chicago Sky64c281.25$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Toronto Tempo36c280$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.213249.2%65 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0602…a12ebacked Toronto Tempo73c274.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.