Olympics · resolved market
Winter Games 2026: Norway (-6.5) vs. USA (+6.5) gold medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5358da96e953289aae0568c9f4ce1ecb691a0bd9cf4f849f530b08cf5bad5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USAof USA, Norway
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Norway | 63c | 20,781$13,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,152.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed USA | 30c | 10,311$3,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,238.42 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed USA | 24c | 7,300$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,539.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed Norway | 64c | 6,969$4,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,460.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Norway | 75c | 6,209$4,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,683.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed USA | 37c | 6,144$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,875.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked USA | 40c | 5,489$2,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,296.42 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Norway | 19c | 4,572$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Norway | 74c | 2,418$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.73 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Norway | 80c | 2,222$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed USA | 45c | 2,154$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed USA | 39c | 2,100$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked USA | 36c | 1,911$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed Norway | 75c | 1,664$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Norway | 74c | 1,664$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed Norway | 5c | 1,600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked USA | 45c | 1,576$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked USA | 48c | 1,473$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.71 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed Norway | 68c | 1,167$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked USA | 24c | 1,118$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +179.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Norway | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Norway | 59c | 853.82$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.92 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Norway | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…0e38backed USA | 47c | 778.29$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed Norway | 62c | 734.1$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked USA | 30c | 719.28$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.36 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.51per pick | 38cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…0583backed Norway | 76c | 682.74$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked USA | 45c | 662.27$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed Norway | 49c | 615.41$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Norway | 15c | 607.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Norway | 39c | 580.36$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.78 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed USA | 28c | 542.32$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed USA | 30c | 519.37$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f52…f489backed Norway | 72c | 518$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed USA | 28c | 514.35$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked USA | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…6c42backed Norway | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Norway | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed USA | 42c | 499.26$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed USA | 21c | 414.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked USA | 36c | 411.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…ed48backed Norway | 57c | 362.83$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked USA | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…b321backed Norway | 69c | 264.74$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked USA | 22c | 263$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked USA | 32c | 252.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked USA | 59c | 241$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Norway | 66c | 239.01$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…75c7backed USA | 77c | 234$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed USA | 30c | 231.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Norway | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab6…b420backed Norway | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…2602backed USA | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked USA | 29c | 188.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Norway | 20c | 181.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Norway | 77c | 180$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed USA | 48c | 160$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Norway | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…b033backed USA | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Norway | 68c | 146.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…0613backed Norway | 77c | 140.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed USA | 29c | 138.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…9074backed Norway | 74c | 134.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…a763backed USA | 45c | 133.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed USA | 65c | 133.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed USA | 37c | 131.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…b4e2backed USA | 77c | 130.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed USA | 31c | 122.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Norway | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed USA | 31c | 117.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Norway | 33c | 115$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked USA | 39c | 115$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed USA | 34c | 113.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Norway | 73c | 107$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked USA | 62c | 106.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…b6ecbacked USA | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…1d5bbacked USA | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed USA | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…ed3bbacked USA | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Norway | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…bbb4backed USA | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9658…8e98backed Norway | 80c | 99.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Norway | 78c | 98.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Norway | 52c | 97.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…756cbacked Norway | 54c | 94.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…639fbacked USA | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…bc9ebacked USA | 35c | 86.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044a…7e1fbacked USA | 27c | 82.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +263.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked USA | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked Norway | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked USA | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked USA | 50c | 73.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed USA | 24c | 72.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…b91cbacked Norway | 44c | 68.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…269dbacked Norway | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Norway | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed USA | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +391.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed USA | 45c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Norway | 40c | 50.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed USA | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.