TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Winter Games 2026: Norway (-6.5) vs. USA (+6.5) gold medals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
USAof USA, Norway
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,525 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Norway63c20,781$13,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,152.351258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed USA30c10,311$3,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,238.427627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed USA24c7,300$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,539.992326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Norway64c6,969$4,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,460.15520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcac9…200bbacked Norway75c6,209$4,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,683.381450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed USA37c6,144$2,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,875.76955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked USA40c5,489$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,296.428236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Norway19c4,572$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.99147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-88.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Norway74c2,418$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.735516.4%9 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-70.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Norway80c2,222$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed USA45c2,154$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.66450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed USA39c2,100$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked USA36c1,911$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4619…3f91backed Norway75c1,664$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Norway74c1,664$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.242250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed Norway5c1,600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked USA45c1,576$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked USA48c1,473$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.713737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed Norway68c1,167$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.740%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked USA24c1,118$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+179.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Norway53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5301030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Norway59c853.82$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.922770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Norway3c800$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53f4…0e38backed USA47c778.29$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.22944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006d…06f8backed Norway62c734.1$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.661330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked USA30c719.28$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.36988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.6wins+0.51per pick38cpaid+161.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe84f…0583backed Norway76c682.74$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked USA45c662.27$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.981233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab6a…3319backed Norway49c615.41$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Norway15c607.88$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.81442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-75.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Norway39c580.36$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.781910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed USA28c542.32$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+81.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0a…cbc9backed USA30c519.37$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f52…f489backed Norway72c518$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x529f…ffd4backed USA28c514.35$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked USA50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+25.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe577…6c42backed Norway54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Norway50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62d6…54e8backed USA42c499.26$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed USA21c414.64$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+60.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked USA36c411.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+174.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf7…ed48backed Norway57c362.83$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked USA20c300$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd9…b321backed Norway69c264.74$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked USA22c263$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.141050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked USA32c252.57$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b2…8abdbacked USA59c241$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed Norway66c239.01$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.731250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec9…75c7backed USA77c234$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed USA30c231.53$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.53933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc37b…9b85backed Norway50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab6…b420backed Norway52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37a…2602backed USA68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked USA29c188.48$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.396137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Norway20c181.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.041233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Norway77c180$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed USA48c160$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Norway36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3d5…b033backed USA67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Norway68c146.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd058…0613backed Norway77c140.27$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.811118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed USA29c138.18$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.685318.9%10 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8230…9074backed Norway74c134.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa5…a763backed USA45c133.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed USA65c133.69$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…2b81backed USA37c131.01$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.611291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick65cpaid+55.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2726…b4e2backed USA77c130.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.36785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed USA31c122.8$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.952448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Norway36c120$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed USA31c117.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+219.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Norway33c115$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1214…ebecbacked USA39c115$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-63.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed USA34c113.02$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Norway73c107$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked USA62c106.58$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a9b…b6ecbacked USA48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x072f…1d5bbacked USA48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed USA66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c18…ed3bbacked USA77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22fa…8135backed Norway55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc0…bbb4backed USA77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9658…8e98backed Norway80c99.09$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8cc…015bbacked Norway78c98.49$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked Norway52c97.75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…756cbacked Norway54c94.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.871330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa156…639fbacked USA72c90$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98fe…bc9ebacked USA35c86.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044a…7e1fbacked USA27c82.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+263.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked USA61c80$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-76.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9f1…137cbacked Norway65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked USA77c75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked USA50c73.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c7c…1439backed USA24c72.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.18616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa236…b91cbacked Norway44c68.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa791…269dbacked Norway48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed Norway73c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed USA20c60$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+391.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed USA45c58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.93941%16 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Norway40c50.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.93450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed USA22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.