TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$431,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,616 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Pistons50c280,070$139,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140,723.7687451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Wizards50c130,000$65,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,60043148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Wizards50c96,049$48,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,024.382,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pistons49c35,449$17,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,248.471,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wizards50c23,487$11,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,698.592,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Wizards53c19,854$10,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,458.51,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Pistons51c18,978$9,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,307.0517251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Pistons48c11,085$5,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,814.351,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards51c11,000$5,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6601,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons51c10,603$5,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,159.484,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Wizards53c10,381$5,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,462.098153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8083…05a2backed Wizards51c10,259$5,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,232425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Wizards51c9,804$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards50c8,996$4,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,503.884,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Wizards48c8,694$4,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,139.092,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards49c6,945$3,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,413.949,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pistons50c6,649$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,324.441,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4111…54a7backed Wizards51c5,175$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,640580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards50c5,034$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.634,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Wizards52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Wizards55c4,741$2,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.32,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Wizards50c4,500$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25014245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pistons48c4,067$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.912,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Wizards51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00038946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Wizards51c3,806$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94170246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards50c3,600$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Wizards51c2,856$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.439952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Wizards51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Wizards50c1,597$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.952,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pistons44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8403,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons56c1,477$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.193,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons48c1,425$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.164,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d3…8acebacked Wizards51c1,163$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5934740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Wizards44c795.23$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.6528842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Pistons49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3574240.5%17 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Pistons49c686.71$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2442153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Pistons47c600$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31789853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Wizards51c588$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.885945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Pistons49c581.63$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.633860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards50c572.13$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.283,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Wizards52c535.37$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.3922154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Wizards51c517.24$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.7912950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Wizards8c509$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9330224.8%75 W · 227 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards49c501$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.495,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards49c484.84$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.638,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards50c402.33$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.173,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Wizards51c399.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9980737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Pistons50c396.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.831,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x451f…7301backed Wizards52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007853.8%42 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb5…6e63backed Pistons49c360$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.64658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Wizards51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15325559.2%151 W · 104 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca06…1394backed Wizards50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4a…e7cabacked Wizards51c277.82$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.693432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Pistons50c239$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9651438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Wizards49c233.33$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5465349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ef1…352ebacked Pistons50c218.32$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wizards52c210$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.22,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Wizards47c206.61$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7987744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Wizards51c205.88$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10549246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Wizards46c200.72$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4583158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd48…d64fbacked Pistons50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Wizards49c200$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.515738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Pistons50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10020846.6%97 W · 111 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5142…ee20backed Wizards51c196.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.155354.7%29 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Wizards51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f2…dab4backed Wizards51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Wizards51c196$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9666153.3%352 W · 309 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e56…8243backed Wizards52c187$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.243228.1%9 W · 23 L-7.3wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-51.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Wizards52c187$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2477549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Pistons51c181.32$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.182,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc7…1af9backed Wizards60c165.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005747.4%27 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Wizards51c160$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.61,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Pistons45c133.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3391846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x362a…8683backed Pistons49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4513155%72 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Pistons49c122.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3239943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Pistons48c101.81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9458450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Wizards52c101.69$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8889048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed Pistons50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5025753.7%138 W · 119 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Pistons50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5053453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Wizards49c99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.511,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Wizards51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5066046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wizards49c93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.115,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…049abacked Pistons49c91.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8418054.4%98 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f1…8a2cbacked Pistons49c90$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick50cpaid-55.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Pistons49c89$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3931947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pistons49c88.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.453,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pistons48c86.04$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.521,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pistons51c82.84$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.351,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Wizards48c82.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.543,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c48…6af3backed Wizards51c80.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.817445.9%34 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x729c…2b1ebacked Pistons50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4026354%142 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d9…91a2backed Pistons48c76$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.523943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked Pistons57c72.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.376058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Wizards48c62.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0967248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d9…a600backed Wizards52c61.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.221855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7215…57a1backed Pistons51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5254…372dbacked Wizards51c58.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Pistons57c56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0834247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ae…3615backed Pistons47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.54341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Pistons68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.